peterww

Dear lucidstates,

I regret any impression that I was suggesting you had been imprecise. I think your settlement instructions are exemplary in their clarity. Well done.

What I meant to suggest was that perhaps crystal clarity is not enough for people too eager to cross something off their "to do" lists. Spelling the details out even more clearly would be like putting on plastic bags the warnings about possible suffocation: Unnecessary for almost everyone but needed after all for an individual or two.

Best wishes,
Peter

I think you're right. The way the question reads it would seem to apply to everyone involved. If there is a single death, the answer is no.

"How does this not count?"

The better question is "How does this count?" It is not a "politically incorrect" statement that led to the change in Penn's status. He didn't publicly insult any individual or disparage a racial, religious or other group. How is it politically incorrect to work on a program that is at odds with the candidate's stated position?

At the moment, the chart on the numbers site is for Friday and the text underneath it mentions estimates made on Sunday. Perhaps to avoid future uncertainty, the settlement requirements can be pegged to the Monday chart that would reflect the three day totals.

Dear Ryan,

Could you please explain your reasoning?

Rev. Wright was an unpaid adviser but not a member of Obama's campaign staff so his resignation should not count.

Mark Penn is leaving his job on Clinton's staff not because of his comments but because of a conflict of interest regarding his business activities. Further, he will still work for the campaign in a more limited capacity so it is arguable whether his change in status counts as a job loss.

It seems to me this should still be an open question. Neither campaign has lost anyone for the required "politically incorrect comments" since the question was created.

Best wishes,
Peter

The site still is not reporting Sunday's numbers but this question has been settled already. How can a question be settled when about a third of the data have not been collected yet? This settlement is self-evidently premature.

Bono probably has a better shot than Bertie Ahern (on whom I bet), now that Ahern has had to resign his post amid scandal in Ireland.

With Saturday's preliminary results, the gap between Leatherheads and Nim's Island is much smaller. The nail biting continues.

Never mind. I just noticed the difference between the Web site and what is in today's paper. And I think I messed up my betting as a result. That's the price for still living in Guttenberg's world.

For the list published April 6, that list of five mirrors precisely the top five. The Appeal has been on the list for eight weeks, 7th Heaven for seven, Remember Me? for four, Change of Heart for three and Dead Heat only for one. (Dead Heat debuted in the fourth spot.)

Wait, I take that back. In a rebooted universe, kryptic is right that the question should be settled as no. A different Batman because of that plot twist would be the same as a different character taking on the role of Batman.

I hope that doesn't happen. DC has rebooted its universes often enough already. But if it does, I think it should be settled as yes. That would mean it's a different Batman because the world would be different.

As for Jason Todd, if Batman is dead, it wouldn't matter how he feels about the boy's methods. Unless Dick Grayson or Alfred or someone stopped him, he could take over no matter what Batman thought.

Could you clarify the following please?

"Voting was 75% in favour of striking, but with less than 1/3 of members striking."

That makes it sound that if the strike proceeds, it would be a partial one and more than 2/3 of the teachers would stay on the job. Is that right?

Um, that's supposed to be Joss.

I bet no, not because I trust Fox but because I trust Jopss Whedon. He learned from his Firefly experience and although the Serenity movie did little to give him added negotiating clout, his Cloverfield did well enough that it probably did. So I'm betting that Mr. Whedon worked out a deal that will protect his new project from these kinds of obstacles.

Thank you.

A question about this option:

Half of them allocated according to the primary, the other half according to final delegate counts of each candidate

If the first half are allocated by the primary results but the second half are awarded based on each candidate's share of the popular vote, that would mean the question would be settled as "some other way," right? I ask because this is one of the proposals floating around and although the results might be the same, the method to achieve them would be worded differently.

It probably will be Clooney's movie, but both The Ruins and Nim's Island have a chance. Horror movies often do well in their first weekend. The Ruins isn't a slasher movie, but it could appeal to that crowd. Sadly, Nim's Island would probably do better at the box office if the hero were a boy. Still, it's a popular story and a lot of kids will get their parents to take them. An upset here would be less surprising than 21 topping Superhero Movie last weekend.

Indeed it does. Thank you for clarifying. That should prevent an Eliot Spitzer resignation kind of mess.

How will this question be resolved if Bruce Wayne lives but is either unable or unwilling to continue as Batman? He could live but his alter ego could be killed off. And if someone else becomes Batman, does that mean the answer is settled as no?

"Before 2009" means before the end of Dec. 31, 2008. Shouldn't the question specify "before the end of 2009?"

The options seem fine to me. They cover all the possible outcomes. Just because the market went up doesn't mean it will stay up.

Dear owl1: It doesn't seem that it would. The Rasmussen tracking poll referred to on that page is for polling nationwide, not just in Pennsylvania.

It looks like we just have to be patient, as with the ARG poll question. The organizations will probably start polling more frequently when the primary is closer.

Now there is talk of a boycott. EU parliament president Hans-Gert Poettering told a German newspaper, "Beijing must decide itself, it should immediately negotiate with the Dalai Lama. If there continue to be no signals of compromise, I see boycott measures as justified."

Dear pics4d: How does posting duplicates of this question help matters?

The activity is marked as being $-870. How is it possible for a question to have a negative value like that?

Isn't there a contradiction here? The settlement details say that the administrators don't have to announce a censure. But if the administrators want to keep a censure private, they can't because settling this as a "yes" indicates that they've imposed one.

In your considerations, you might want to look at the polling done by Quinnipiac University. The organization seems well respected. Here's a link to their latest analysis of the Pennsylvania race:

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1284.xml?ReleaseID=1158&What=&strArea=;&strTime=120

What's the rush? There are many competing interests at work here and it could take some time to clear up the matter definitively. Is there some harm done if the question remains open for quite some time?

Yes, the settlement details specify March 31.

No harm done. I wish my mistakes were that minor.

Doesn't the latest ARG poll place Clinton's lead at 11, not 9?

Pennsylvania
Democrats Mar 7-8

Clinton 52%
Obama 41%
Someone else 1%
Undecided 6%

Thank you for clarifying in advance that Florida and Michigan's situations are exempt from this question. Well done.

Your primary/anything else distinction makes sense. Thank you for explaining it right at the start.

Now the Get Satisfaction system let me on. Sorry to duplicate post like this. Won't do it again.

I tried posting on the Get Satisfaction page but the system wouldn't let me. Says my e-mail address is already being used by someone. It is, by me, but I can't get the system to understand that.

So:

I bet on silver so I'd be better off if the question were voided, but I don't see how it can be. The tie is purple and since that wasn't a choice, we all lose. Would a bookie give back the money if a horse that no one bet on won the race?

The final option wasn't "none of the above" but "none." That suggests he would wear no tie. Anyone who wanted "none of the above" could have asked for it to be edited in as an option. Or they could have avoided the question. Or started a market "Will the Chancellor wear a purple tie?"

In the first comment, Ryan predicated the question on when Spitzer would still be in office.

Perhaps we, and all the reporters, need to consider another word from Spitzer's statement today. This is from Merriam-Webster's:

Main Entry: ef·fec·tive

"4: being in effect : operative <the tax becomes effective next year>"

If he had resigned, he could have said, "I have resigned." People announce things in the past tense often. George Bush, for example, did not say that he was ordering the invasion of Iraq. He waited until he had done and then it said so in the past tense. If Spitzer had resigned, he would have said so. "I am resigning" does not mean "I have resigned" just as "I am dying" does not mean "I have died."

As to the question of verb tenses, it doesn't matter how the media phrase it but how they quote Spitzer. Here's what he said:

"For this reason, I am resigning from the office of governor."

Not that he has resigned but that the process is ongoing.

If that's true, then the state has no governor for several days. That would mean, for example, that no one could deploy the state's National Guard in an emergency. The governor can and that means that Eliot Spitzer can, until he resigns on Monday.

"People are just making a fuss to keep their money."

No, that's not true. I bet heavily that Spitzer would hold on until April and clearly that is not likely to happen. But we won't know the answer to this until Monday, when he resigns. If I were trying to protect my money, I'd be calling for the question to be voided but I'm not because that's not the appropriate outcome.

To argue that Spitzer has resigned, one must answer this question: Who is governor of New York? It is not David Patterson, just as the person elected in November will not be president until January.

George Pataki was governor until Spitzer took the oath. Spitzer is governor until Patterson takes it. A resigned chief executive can't wield executive power and Spitzer still wields the executive power in New York's state government.

No, that is not the only possible resolution. Sen. Larry Craig announced his resignation and is still in the Senate long after it was supposed to take effect. Until Monday, all Spitzer has said is that he is going to resign.

If someone announces their wedding date, it doesn't mean they are married.

News reports quoting people supposedly close to Spitzer say he'll announce in about 40 minutes, at 11:30 a.m.

Thank you. I've had some problems in that area so hearing your encouragement is especially appreciated.

Ravenwood as military? Now that you mention it, it makes sense. The government has given them full authority to arrest people and to shoot to kill if they see fit. They certainly are acting like a military with the government's authorization so a good case could be made that they are. If not as military, they are certainly acting with police powers.

Plus Bonnie is mentioned in two options but only one was allowed. The answer to this question is more complicated than the settlement suggests.

I just noticed for the first time that Bonnie is listed in two of the choices.

It was Bonnie who was killed. The video clip is on the CBS Web site:

http://www.cbs.com/primetime/jericho/video/video.php?cid=669046174&pid=5cI7V6eyw_09RdippMu3YMqI_DN_5MDG&play=true&cc=2

There already is a market for this question:

http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_win_Best_Actress_at_the_Oscars_265/view

It's not my question so it's not my place to ask someone to change the wording. Nor would I. First, the advertising uses Mega Millions to describe both the game and the jackpot, as in "Play Mega Millions tonight and you could walk away with Mega Millions tomorrow." So the question as worded is clearly about the jackpot. Second, try telling someone that you won the Mega Millions drawing. They are not going to think you are boasting about a consolation prize.

I'm grateful to truthwrangler for suggesting how I could have worded a question that had to be voided because my wording was imprecise, but this time truthwrangler is mistaken. The question clearly means the jackpot because the only way to win Mega Millions in the game is to win the jackpot. The second place prize is $250,000 and the other prizes are smaller, not anywhere close to the amount mentioned in the question.

Some other recent splits:

In 2002 Chicago was the Best Picture but Roman Polanski won for directing The Pianist.
2000: Picture was Gladiator; director was Steven Soderbergh for Traffic
1998: Picture was Shakespeare in Love; director was Steven Spielberg for Saving Private Ryan

Other years in which the prizes split: 1989; 1981; 1972; 1967; 1956; 1952; 1951; 1949; 1948; 1940; 1937; 1936; and 1935.

Here's a link to reporting that she'll release them when she is the Democratic nominee:

http://weblogs.baltimoresun.com/news/politics/blog/2008/02/clinton_says_not_yet_to_releas.html

Making one's tax returns available to other members of Congress is not the same as releasing them publicly, which Senator Clinton has not done.

Whoops. I should have know that. Thank you for pointing it out.

I was wrong in my introduction. It would take more than fifty times what I have on hand, not five times.