rbrog77

OMG - ABC won last week. There goes my money.

Once he announces Gates is staying on, then this would have to settle as 4-6 as everyone else named or nominated above Gates is a Dem.

LAHAINA, Hawaii — Despite scoring 16 points during North Carolina's semifinal win over Oregon on Tuesday, Tyler Hansbrough is questionable to play in the Maui Invitational championship against Notre Dame on Wednesday night.

http://blogs.newsobserver.com/accnow/unc-notes-tyler-questionable-again

This market refers only to the FOX NFL pre-game show, which airs from 12-1 EST. and the segment where Frank makes his selections.

Funny Val. And I was gonna say it's a croc.

;->

Oops, typo in the Background. Either that or I'm channelling Sarah Palin when I typed "startin odds".

;->

As a clarification, this is for Election Night Nov 4, 2008.

I found this on msnbc.com and thought it a pertinent guide.

As I reviewed in this space back in June, the (Bradley) effect was best described in a 1993 report by Larry Hugick of Princeton Survey Research. He examined the final polls in 10 biracial elections in the 1980s and early 1990s and found that they accurately forecast the percentage of the vote received by the black candidate, but typically understated the share of the vote won by the white candidate.

Only black candidates who broke the 50% level in the final poll were victorious," Hugick wrote 15 years ago.

I posted this on another question, but at pollster.com all strong Obama states are over 50% (272 votes) and all leaning Obama states (39 votes) are also over 50% except Ohio (49.8-43.7). Subtract Ohio's 20 from the total (if it remains this way) and Obama'll end up with 291.

Thanks for the suggestion, Jenny

Even I don't believe this will happen anymore, although I'll still risk the original $400 I bet that it will. In my opinion, Obama will win 286-252, not due to the Bradley effect, but due to the Obama effect.

The Obama effect comes from the primary votes. It was almost errie how correct Obama's numbers were heading into the primary versus what he came out with. In other words, if he was leading in the polls over Hillary 48-47 with 5% undecided, Hillary would probably win 52-48. So if he doesn't have over 50% of a states poll numbers going in, my assumption is he will not win that state.

According to pollster.com today, Obama has 306 strong or lean electoral votes. All of these states have over 50% - except ohio with 20%. That's where i get my 286.

I wish we could bet on an exact number rather than a range.

;->

Not much has changed since last week except the total. Pollster.com now has it 320-155. They moved Ohio from toss-up to Lean Obama (49.6 - 45.3) as well as New Hampshire (49.7 - 44.4) and moved North Dakota and Missouri into toss-up (47.4 - 43.8 and 48.1 - 47.5 respectively towards McCain).

As for the Bradley effect, only Ohio in the lean Obama catagory is under the 5% mark,leaving him with 300 total.

According to pollster, her are the 25 states (including DC) Obama would win if election was held today.

Maine, NH, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, PA, OH, Mich, Wis, Ill, Iowa, Minn, CO, NM, CA, OR, Wash, FL, and HI.

The only toss-ups are NV, ND, NC, VA, WV, Missouri and Indiana with VA, NC and NV in the Obama column.

An interesting map this morning at pollster.com. For the first time, they have someone over the 270 needed to win - Obama. Current tally is 296-163 with only 79 toss-ups.

But the interesting thing - okay, another interesting thing - is how the toss-ups read.

Nevada - 48-47.7 Obama
Ohio - 48.6-45.9 Obama
New Hampshire - 48.1-45 Obama
Virginia - 49.2-47 Obama
North Carolina - 47.2-46.8 Obama

McCain only leads in toss-ups Missouri and Indiana (49.1-46.3 and 47.2-45.4 respectively).

If you apply the Bradley effect to the “lean” states, however, (see comment 15 above) take CO out (9), Minnesota ((10), Pennsylvania (21) and Florida (27). That would bring his 296 down to 229.

Again, regardless of who you lean towards, let’s hope there is no Bradley effect.

As of Oct 1, Pollster.com has it 229-174 in favor of Obama with 135 toss-ups. As mentioned above, Obama leads in CO, PA, and Minnesota. If he won just those states out of the toss ups it would mean a 269-269 tie.

But there's something interesting this week. He also leads in VA. Only by 2/10 of a point, but that's a first on pollster.

I also want to bring up the Bradley effect this week. In case you don't know, Bradley was a very popular mayor of LA who ran for governor. Polls showed him up substantially goining into election day, but he lost...narrowly.

The Bradley effect (approximately 5%) attributes this to his race and the fact that certain white people could not bring themselves to vote for a black candidate.

If this effect is applied to the leans and toss-ups on pollster, Obama only has 202.

Regardless of who you support, let's hope there is no Bradley effect this year.

Isn't the 2nd debate between McCain and Obama a town hall type debate?

I'm happy to have lost money on this one. Go Heels!!

Ddog - I think it's pretty safe (probably) to say the house will be dems. I also think it's safe to say more states will be red than blue. The sticking point is the part about the laws mandating how the electors must vote.

Since my research says nearly half have those mandates, it would be interesting o see which states. It would also be interesting to see if the mandate is for the states popular vote or the overall popular vote.

My guess is it would be the state.

If McCain isn't there, why would Plin be? And if Biden and Obama are there the republicans will use it against them both. They ain't going.

That would mean in a 50-50 vote in the senate Cheney would break the tie, right? So it's possible according to this that our next president could be Palin?

nooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo......................

According to what I researched, it's the next congressional delegation, not this one.

more...

Under a tie, the election would be thrown into the House of Representatives. Each state delegation in the House of Representatives would caucus individually, with each state getting one vote.

Example - Arkansas has four members in the House of Representatives: Three are Democrats and one is Republican. They would caucus together and might cast their one vote for Obama (assuming he’s the nominee of course.) So the people of Arkansas could have voted for McCain, but in the House, they might likely vote for Obama.

Ironically, John McCain might not win his home state of Arizona in this scenario, because there are 2 Democrats and 2 Republicans in his state’s delegation. A tie yields no vote obviously.

However, about half the states (I don’t know which) have laws requiring their Electors to vote for the popular vote winner.

This is from the 12th amendment - If the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in the case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.

As for the veep, the 12th amendment says the Senate shall choose the Vice-President;.

Am I reading this right? If it’s a tie and goes to the house and it’s a tie, then the VP as elected by the senate would be president?

Thing is even after the congressional moritorium is lifted oil companies have to deal with state bans.

From MSNBC - The House late Tuesday approved on a 236-189 vote legislation that would open waters 50 miles off the Pacific and Atlantic coasts to oil and natural gas development — if the adjacent states agree to go along.

The legislation now goes to the Senate, where Democratic leaders are expected to mold it to their liking in the next few days.

Looks like some form of lifting is on it's way.

Thanks dog...and call me rb.

Okay, keeping that in mind DD and smidge, look at today's numbers.

Obama - 229, McCain 166

Yes, MC Cain dropped 36 points in 4 days, 58 in the last week.

NC and Fla moved into tossup. If we look at Obama's lead it's 2.3 in PA, 3.2 in MN, and 1.8 in CO. All other toss-ups in McCain's favor. So by DD’s 2-3 point thing to favor Obama, only PA and MN (31 votes) would possibly fall in for him. On the other hand, McCain only has a 3+ lead ( I know you said 4 but there are no toss-ups with 4) he has 3.0 lead in Ohio, 3.6 in WV, and 3.3 in NC and FL.

Still, add all the numbers up where one is favored over the other it’s a 269 tie.

Pundits like to say polls are about trends, though. If that’s true, my prediction is this question will be settled as No.

MSNBC says there was damage

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26802846/

Update - okay, I'm not going to do this daily, but this is too interesting to pass up.

Pollster.com today (for the first time I might add) has McCain ahead 208-202. There are many more toss-up states, of course, but I did the math of states leaning each way. Toss-ups that lean Obama add up to 67 electoral votes. Add that to the 202 pollster.com has for Obama today and the vote count is 269-269.

It may not happen, but you gotta admit this is turning into a pretty good question.

Update - on 9-18 pollster.com has it 243-219 in favor of Obama. But of the 8 toss-ups he only has a lead in Michigan (17 votes).

if it's not's sept, and if congress is recessed for elections as usually happens, not vote until at least Nov. If he's elected Pres, he may never vote again.

Actually, if congress did nothing to act the ban would be lifted on Oct 1 as that's when it runs out. Last night the house did vote to permit drilling, but it depends on what states say about it and limits it to 50 miles off shore. Senate has less than 2 weeks.

Be interesting to see where Joe Bama and McSame come down on this.

I'm mot enjoying making hubdub $$ on this question this week.

<sigh...>

What happens if it's not this month? Or next month? Likely not next month as they shut down for campaigning, so he's got about 2 weeks.

Update - Pollster.com has it 238-224 today in favor of Obama with 7 toss-ups. Obama has a 1+ point lead in only 2 of those states (Michigan (17) and New Mexico (5)) and a less than 1 point lead in Colorado (9).

Actually I think he's a pretty good balanace for Pat Buchannan (sp?) (who seems to be on 24/7) and Morning Joe Scarborough

I heard a Republican on MSNBC say she had 37 million. Not sure if it's ture or not, but that's what he said.

As the question specifically says when he enters the RNC, he entered it last night at the end of Palin's speech. His first words on the mike were Thank you.

As the question is "Will the GOP convention be delayed due to Gustav?" it seems the answer and settlement should be No. They toned or pared down the first day's activities to about 2 hours worth. That's not a delay.

Actually, MSNBC is saying he may speak.

DENVER - A cancer-fighting Sen. Edward M. Kennedy prepared to attend, and possibly speak, at the opening day of the Democratic National Convention on Monday as presidential nominee-to-be Barack Obama unleashed a hard-hitting television commercial linking GOP rival John McCain with President Bush.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/26379521

That was a great article, and it got me to thinking. If Bill were in Nancy Pelosi’s position he would have been elected to office, but not elected as president. If both the P and VP bought it, since he was not elected to the presidency, but would be allowed to serve again. It does specifically say “No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice.”

This is very interesting stuff.

Ad in NC says she's (Dole) ranked 93 in effectiveness by a non-partisian group. Hits her pretty hard.

I don't see how she reclaims #1 without US Open win or olympic victory. Since she's out of both I just don't see it.

I sooooooooooo want this to happen.

Thanks Lucid

WOOHOO!! Football!!

AP - JERUSALEM - Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert announced Wednesday he will resign in September, throwing his country into political turmoil and raising doubts about progress for U.S.-backed Mideast peace efforts.

Olmert's brief address, given at his official Jerusalem residence, included harsh criticism of corruption investigations against him. He said he was choosing the public good over his personal justice. He has consistently denied wrongdoing but pledged to resign if indicted.

Appearing angry and reading from a prepared text, Olmert said, "I was forced to defend myself against relentless attacks from self-appointed 'fighters for justice' who sought to depose me from my position, when the ends sanctified all the means."

I think this should be settled now, but I can't find the exact number. Her's what I see.

Americans drove 9.6 billion fewer miles in May 2008 than in May 2007, according to federal data released Monday. The 3.7 percent decline was the third-largest monthly drop in the 66 years the Department of Transportation has been collecting the data.

Seems like tabloid-wise this has some legs, but I'm still not sure there'll be proof enough for it to go MSM/CNN. So I put 20 on Yes.

Regardless of the slant of a news organiztion, I would hope if it's reported as true news theyre would be facts to back it up. Wouldn't you?

Now THAT'S a question? I knew I wanted a WII, just didn't know how much...until now.

;->

Any news on this yet?

Thanks Ryan

B Bear - that's why I wrote this one. To be honest, I don't have a clue. W can't as he's at the G8, I'm with you on Carter and Clinton, so that leaves 41. I'm in Raleigh where the funeral will be held and have heard no word on this.