rogerkni

Monday night, gold futures are $765.

Bettors on this question might also like my question, How many iPhones will Apple seel in the December Quarter?
http://www.hubdub.com/m23090/How_Many_iPhones_Will_Apple_Sell_in_the_December_Quarter

Bettors on this question should check out my question, Where will the price of gold by by Jan 31?
http://www.hubdub.com/m23928/What_will_the_price_of_gold_be_by_January_31_2009

When the Dow is below 1000, as now (at about 8800), 1000-point drops are impossible, because the NYSE's "circuit breaker" cuts in when the market declines by 10% (880 points) and suspends trading.

I bet NO, because Apple & Jobs have been emphatic about not licensing. But it would make sense for Apple to license its OS to PC companies in the 2nd and 3rd worlds, where its sales currently are minuscule and wouldn't cannibalize sales of its current hardware. However, Apple is probably too set in its ways to think different, so my bet is safe, most likely. (Perhaps, if the economic crisis got really bad, Apple would come around on this issue.)

I guess their niche has been filled by Dollar Stores and similar outfits. It's amazing Woolworths let itself be displaced, given that it had the mindshare in that slot.

Do "Black Friday" discounts count?

I suggest a tougher question: Will gs drop below $1.50 per gallon in 2009? This one's too easy.

I agree with Guido that the Dow is going MUCH lower, and that the "normals" will get hurt. (And I, along with Guido, was a heavy bettor on the "Dow 9000? by Oct. 31" question. I also predict that we'll be at 4500 by Halloween next year (2009).) In particular, Warren Buffett is going to take a bath. (He sold billions of long-term put options on the stock indexes near the peak a year or so ago. He figured, and figures, that the market will always come back. Not this time (as Guido says). (Unless inflation saves him.) He fell for the lure of what he thought was "free money," ignoring Nassim Teleb's warnings (in "Fooled by Randomness" and "The Black Swan") about the catastrophic risk involved in betting heavily on "sure things."

But there are all sorts of wrinkles to be considered that might slow down or interrupt the decline. For instance, mark-to-market accounting could be suspended. Ditto short selling. Deleveraging could be cut off by the gov't or judiciary declaring credit default swaps unenforceable or against public policy.
========

22 frogchop wrote:
"@rogerkni: over a 50% drop is unprecidented? To borrow a line from the Princess Bride, "I do not think it means what I think you think it means". Try looking back to 1929-1933 and you'll see that the DOW was down over 80%."

That's not what I said. I specified a much shorter time period than three+ years. I wrote:
"A 1000 point decline in six weeks, after a 50% bear market, would be unprecedented."
Look at the chart. If the Dow breaches 7000 by year-end, it would be an unprecedented "waterfall" (within the context of the previous decline).

However, I have no crystal ball. I'd be willing to bet "under 7000" at the right odds--say, 20% or less.

Freighters should carry a couple of foldable armed trimarans lashed to their sides and deploy them when their radar detects a suspicious vessel approaching.

It closed on 11/20/08 at 7.17.

I don't think there's going to be a flat-out non-opinion piece in one of those periodicals asserting that this, or any other, controversial matter is settled. That would violate journalistic standards. They'd always include "on the other hand" testimony for balance, or place the piece in the op-ed section. The most they'd do would be to slant or spin the story one way or the other. Even the pro-warming articles they've published in the past haven't flat-out presented the case as closed.

I think a better way to pose this question--and a way that would be easier to settle--would be to focus on judging only the headline. Something like, "Scientists Cool on Global Warming" would suffice.

IMO, what will turn opinion around on this will be two or three notably cold years. 2008 is shaping up to be sharply cooler than recent years, and some mainstream scientists are predicting this lower temperature will prevail for a few years more. This will embolden the silent majority of scientists, who are cowed by the hysteria of the Insisters, into sticking their heads above the foxhole and making a peep. Then the issue will fade away--if lower temperatures continue--like the alarmism over acid rain, the risk of heterosexual AIDS, etc.

Incidentally, I just discovered a great Cool-ist website yesterday: http://wattsupwiththat.com There's a high level of discussion there--way over the normal level of Internet discourse.

@ Pixelpaws: Noted.

Four bottle of beer on the wall.

Actually, I'm beginning to suspect we'll hold above 7000 this year. At least, that's how it would work if the market were sensible. There's a lot of money on the sidelines. And a 1000 point decline in six weeks, after a 50% bear market, would be unprecedented.

But forced liquidations may overwhelm all else. And there might be some really ugly stuff under the rocks in the financials. Hard to say what'll happen. Anyway, I'm betting on the four slices in the 7000s, not on Under 7000. )

And today (Wednesday) it closed below 8000, driven down mostly be a huge drop in Citigroup. Probably the other financials like Goldman will come under a cloud--a darker cloud--as a result, in weeks to come. (But there will probably be a bounce up tomorrow.)

Today (Thursday) the Dow briefly went below 8000, causing program trading to kick in that rocketed it up 800 points from that level. No panic.

"To date, we haven't even had an intraday value below 8,000,"

Yes we have. And it caused an immediate roar upwards, not a panic.

Here's another column by Arlington, "Yahoo: Why Yang must go", at:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/104479-yahoo-why-yang-must-go

One down, 18 to go. ("18 bottles of beer on the wall, ...")

In under three hours Berg's lawsuit will land in Supreme Court Justice Souter's lap. His ruling could knock this whole contest in a cocked hat, if he demands a birth certificate from Obama. (I presume this would make "Other"--i.e., Biden--the winner. Anyway, that's how I've been betting.)

No additional deaths listed in the six weeks since my comment above.

Here are some priceless excerpts from this weekend's article in Barrons, "Big money managers are cautiously bullish", at http://seekingalpha.com/article/103514-big-money-managers-are-cautiously-bullish-barron-s

Remarkably, "Big Money" managers surveyed this week by Barron's magazine are unrelentingly optimistic - with 50% saying they're bullish or very bullish about the stock market's prospects through the middle of next year.

62% believe stocks are currently undervalued; 7% think they're still overvalued.
An amazing 83% say they're beating the S&P 500 this year. Wow.
GDP growth: 0.15% in 2008 and 0.49% in 2009. Inflation 3.28% in 2008 and 3.02% in 2009.
17% remain bearish on stocks, but only 3 out of 70 see the Dow closing out 2008 lower than Monday's close of 8175, and only one thinks it will be trading below 8000 next June.
The median estimate is for a Dow close of 10,642 this year - up 14% from current levels, but down 20% on the year.

Hi again, Guido. That's an interesting comment--nice and spooky, for Halloween. I infer you have bet heavily on "below 7000," because that was so heavily favored. Consequently, I've had to vote for the four ranges from 7000 through 8000 to get good odds. Well, I'll liquidate them on the way down, one at a time, even though I agree that the real target is below 7000. (I believe we'll be at 4500 this time next year--if we're lucky.)

Unfortunately, betting on this question seems to move the odds more rapidly after a heavy bet than did the bet on whether the Dow would touch 9000 by the end of Oct., so I can put down only small amounts. But maybe a daily back-and-forth betting pattern will develop against the optimists, as it did last time. I'm hoping.

That's like saying that tornado alerts should only be broadcast on the radio, rather than being sirens that residents can't miss.

There's less need for this Total figure, now that day-trading on stocks is not allowed. (A good decision--although perhaps some separate area could have been set aside for it, so that its winnings would not count in a user's total. Stock market day-trading is a different skill set from current events predicting.) However, if there is room for it, a Total figure should be provided, as it is something the typical user wants to know just as much as its component parts (cash and predictions), and it's absurd to hide it away elsewhere. Hubdub needs to make itself more attractive to users, and every little bit of friendliness helps.

(I say that Hubdub needs to be friendlier because I surmise that few of the persons who sign up for Hubdub hang around. When I look at the leaderboard, I see that there are 615 pages of 20 names each. I infer that 12,300 persons have signed up in Hubdub's lifetime. But the number of them who have visited the site within the last 30 days is less than 10% that figure, I'd wager.)

I hope that attitude doesn't reflect Hubdub's official position, but I fear it does. For that reason I am ending my participation on this forum. (I ended my betting and cashing-in on Oct. 9, ten days ago, in response to a similarly objectionable e-mail from a Hubdub higher-up.)

Beneath the word "ALL" (or for that matter, beneath any topic heading, like "Business"), there is the word "See". It should be replaced by something more self-explanatory such as I suggested. Otherwise, some people, who don't know what was intended by "See," won't get the point.

Aha! It's in the upper left. But I suggest that the introductory word "See" be replaced by something that hints better at the list's purpose, like "Select the following" or "Arrange in order by the following criterion".

I don't want to do that extra work. If there's room for a Total field, it should be provided, because many bettors, especially those making large bets on daily stock-price movements, are interested in their bottom line, not in its components (cash and predictions), which vary back and forth radidly as they cash in bets or lay down new bets.

That requires regularly going to a different screen. I think it's more logical to have the "alerts" displayed where the user can't miss them.

Yahoo's stock is now under $15, I think. It's unlikely MS would offer over $30 for it now. Very unlikely.

I go to Safeway myself, but lately I've discovered a discount chain called Grocery Outlet that's 25% cheaper. The clientele are more down-market--but that's the case at Costco too.

OK, maybe you've got me there. But here's one thing the new-style list needs to carry over from the old: Bold borders around sequences of the same question. (Or use color-coding.) This grouping is very helpful.

See post #3 above.

But space is tight. Color-coding requires no space.

Back to work?!?!--Never!!! Time to vote on whether the Dow will crack 8000 by year-end. I'll set up the question now. (The current question isn't formulated well enough to draw heavy betting, the way this one was, because it puts no short-term time-limit, but merely asks if the Dow will EVER (or anyway in 2009) get below 8000. Ho hum..)

Over on Seeking Alpha, Michael Arrington posts "The Yahoo Train Wreck in whcih he comments thus:

The stock closed at $13.76 Wednesday, down another 5.6%. ... At this point I’ve moved beyond wondering how Yahoo’s senior management manages to keep themselves in power. The private equity funds who agreed to let Yang and Decker stay in power after the shareholder vote last summer have some real explaining to do to their investors, too. Yahoo has no game plan, and the markets tend to notice these things. It’s time for an intervention.

CNN Money today:
One market strategist said the selloff is a bad sign because the Fed and other central banks are running out of ways to effectively deal with the credit crisis. "This better work. This is the last chance," said Jeffrey Saut, chief market strategist with Raymond James Financial.

Next stop 8000? Here's the link to the place where you can bet on that:
http://www.hubdub.com/m18439/Will_the_stock_market_DJIA_fall_20_percent

Tokyo down 10% (so far) tonight. Nasdaq futures -30.

Here's a link to a post by Felix Salmon that quotes one of the prophets of the collapse, Noriel Roubini, gloating now:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/98937-roubini-was-right

Half this drop was a nervous reaction to the Morgan Stanley deal with Mitsuibishi (sp?) not going through. I think there will be a bounce back to the end of the week by maybe 200 points. But the trend is down for sure--there are a lot of motivated sellers out there.

Or allow the user to customize the default.

My browser (Firefox) and my previous browser (IE) already change the color of questions that have been clicked on once.

As a start, I suggest cutting the delay to 6 hours for Business Indices questions.

If quarterly questions are created, then there should be no monthly questions created for the last month in the quarter. (Because the quarterly question would become equivalent to a monthly question at that point.)

Note: Apple's fiscal fourth quarter corresponds to the calendar's third quarter. Therefore, achieving 10M sales in Apple's Q4 (if true) means it will surely sell 12M by the end of 2008.

9550. Hey, guido, you're preaching to the choir! :)

Halfway home. (Down 687, which is more than the 666 points needed to take us halfway to our target.)

Headline on Marketwatch:
"European stocks end worst one-day decline ever, down nearly 8%."

Here's a cheery note, from the thread "Lehman's Lies" on Seeking Alpha at http://seekingalpha.com/article/98647-lehman-s-lies :
"And it's not nearly over yet. The European shoe is only beginning to drop: Banks there are much more leveraged than banks in the US, and a European credit crunch is therefore even more devastating than a US credit crunch. Add in the feedback mechanisms from Europe back into the US, and things are likely to get much worse before they get any better.

Oh, and did I mention? TED's at 391bp -- another new record. I have a feeling this is going to be a long week."

9775, down 550. Today's first 75 minutes of trading have taken us 40% of the way to 9000 from Friday's close. Bear market panics lead to steep declines.

Jenniandboys: I'm not aiming to win this bet, just to be able to cash out at better odds than I entered on. I'm not hoping for the outcome I'm betting on--that's an attitude that will bring a bettor to grief. (For instance, I've been betting persistently for months on Hillary Clinton, because I think there's more than a gnat's eyelash chance she'll become the Dem. nominee at the last moment.)

Guido: It seems to me that the Yes bettors don't understand how leveraging can be potentially catastrophic, once a positive feedback cycle gets going. It's a very risky situation.

Here's a cartoon I saw on Seeking Alpha that will amuse you: A very scruffy homeless guy with full beard and wild hair is standing against a building wearing a sign saying "Work for Food." A chipper, prosperous-looking, smiling guy holding a cell phone to his ear leans back and says to him over his shoulder, "Cheer up, my broker says things are looking up." The homeless guy, whose hand is also held against his ear, says, "I AM your broker."

Here's an unofficial sales estimate, just posted on Seeking Alpha, titled "iPhone Sales Drastically Surpass Q4 Consensus: Apple Reaches 10m Goal."
It's at: http://seekingalpha.com/article/98619-iphone-sales-drastically-surpass-q4-consensus-apple-reaches-10m-goal

Maybe the Dow will hit 9000 by the end of this week. Or this day.

PS: Guido--do you have any comment on the story above?

Here's a scary story--one that could start a run for the exits: "Bank of America to Lehman: Where's Our Money?"
http://news.moneycentral.msn.com/provider/providerarticle.aspx?feed=BWK&date=20081003&id=9226267

A 3% decline would do it, and fulfill the 333-point quota for the week. I'm now in to the tune of nearly $20,000. Some Hubdub millionaire's been dueling with me for a month or so on this, so he stands to lose $300,000 or so.

Here's a link to the web site with a photo and specs of Kindle-2, supposedly. But this prototype doesn't mean it will be released this year, necessarily.
http://www.boygeniusreport.com/2008/10/03/amazon-kindle-2-ebooks-its-way-to-bgr/

A rumor just out today states that "the brick" will be a new laser-based manufacturing process here in the US. Very exciting and apparently credible. (This would count as "something else.") Here's the link:
http://www.9to5mac.com/macbook-brick

If a bettor is worried about that rare event occurring, he can avoid using the green-light checkbox. But, even if he always goes ahead, it shouldn't be a problem, because he can immediately back out his bet by cashing it in.

What I'm saying is that there should be a "fill-my-bet-regardless" check box within the "market has moved" page.

Fine with me!

Hi cognos. I've also bet Yes, to the tune of $15,000 (in many small bets of 500 & 1000). At 6%, it's a good bet--but I don't think it's probable. I expect to lose my money. But I'd do it again, because, over the long run, I'd come out ahead making bets like this.

I was unaware of how problematic this was for people with your size of screen. But surely Hubdub could find a place for it somewhere, or make a place for it, in a way that wouldn't impact you. (Maybe it could be a field that could be disabled from appearing, so people with screens like yours could dodge the problem.)

Good idea. But I think it should be handled "officially" (from Hubdub headquarters), to assure that this will always always be done and done consistently, and to allow the 12-hour-rule to be voided for those items. It will also avoid the situation where day-trading questions are posted days in advance, which can be confusing.

The Total figure can be placed to the left of the Cash figure--there's plenty of room there.

As I stated, the user should be allowed to give the green light to go ahead with the trade then and there--in the dialog box that warns him that the odds have changed. If he wants to go back and check what the odds have moved to, he would still be able to do so--and he should be informed that that is his other option.

The Dow closed today at 10,325. There are four weeks to go in October. 1325 / 4 = 333 points per week. That's doable.

Here's a comment from Felix Salmon in his post "The Downside" on the Seeking Alpha site:
<This crisis has clearly moved far past the point at which monetary policy alone can turn things around. The only real question is whether monetary policy and fiscal policy and TARP and regulatory reform and closer cooperation between global authorities can turn things around. Right now, I'd put that at about p=0.4.... The global financial system is so interlinked, and so susceptible to vicious cycles of mistrust and deleveraging, that the worst-case scenarios really are gruesome beyond imagining.

The Nikkei was down today (Thursday, Oct. 2) 1.7% to 10,968.73, breaking 11,000.

Ah ha! Very good. But I suggest making it more prominent (larger, more colorful, and/or closer to the center of the page), so it doesn't get overlooked. I also suggest maybe making it a single button that toggles between Friends and All (displaying Friends when All is showing and vice versa).

Here's a link to a site where lots of amateurs, and a few pros, make moderated posts about stocks that I've found educational and provocative:
http://seekingalpha.com/articles
Some of them explain the dire straits we're in. (Another domino fell today--along with some of the "unreported Big Bad News" I predicted, such as rising unemployment and us being in a recession, semi-officially. When the ordinary on-the-fence investor reads that tomorrow, or next week, he'll redeem some of his investment, and the next domino will fall, etc. We could be below 10,000 next week.)
Another site that links to some good pro articles, especially from "Minyanville" (love that bear), is here:
http://www.marketwatch.com/

PS: There should be no 12-hour delay rule in effect on such standardized questions. (This is another reason for implementing them.)

"Get a Mac."

Apart from being more natural, the adjacency of Past and Present values allows the user (of the old-style page) to easily compare the two figures (to see how much he's up or down). This is a very common operation. The next most common operation is comparing Present to Future (the amount of the potential payoff), to see how much more upside there is in a bet. For the sake of consistency, the earlier-in-time amount should be on the left side of the comparison in both operations. At present it is not, which frustrates and slows down the user. He has to stop and think.

CAPITOL REPORT
Recession now certain, economists say: Consumer spending on track for first quarterly decline since early 1990s
By Rex Nutting, MarketWatch Last update: 6:24 p.m. EDT Oct. 1, 2008

The latest data, covering activity in August and September, make it all but certain that the academic economists will eventually declare that the economy is in a recession. The big economic forecasting firms are in the process of updating their forecasts following the release of key data on consumer spending.
.................
If the recession lasts from December 2007 until April 2009, as Gault suspects it will, it would be the longest since the Great Depression. And the recovery, when it comes, won't feel anything like a boom.
.....................
the economists at the National Bureau of Economic Research, who are the arbiters of recession dating, say that "a recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales."
Four of those indicators have been declining significantly since the first of the year. Employment has fallen at a 0.7% annual pace, incomes are down 1% (even with the rebate), output is down 2.8%, and sales are down 1.3%. Only GDP has bucked the trend, rising at a 1.8% annual rate. How can that be? Can the economy really contract while GDP is growing? The answer is yes, under certain circumstances like now, when exports are booming while domestic consumption and investment are weak.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/recession-now-certain-economists-say/story.aspx?guid={19786F11-56EF-4FCF-94CA-88189A007276}

Let me give a little more context on why I'd like this. I made over 30 bets + cashings-in today, going in and out of stock market bets mostly. I would like to know, every 30 minutes or so, "How Am I Doing?" (i.e,, is my total growing?) without having to switch screens or add up the two figures (predictions plus cash) in my head. Hubdub should provide this convenience for me and for other heavy day-traders. It would cost them nothing.

The old-style Predictions page does both already (spells out the word and grays out the box), but it's not enough. I have well over 100 bets open, and have many screen-pages to scan through--and the sequence of my bets changes frequently, as I am very active. Thus, I lose track of what's where. Further, I'm sometimes working on stock market items under time pressure of breaking news, and I'm looking for bets that I can temporarily cash in for stock market plays. So I'm not in a situation where I have only two dozen lines of bets that I can scan at my leisure--and neither are many other highly active bettors, I suspect. A more prominent way of indicating those bets that I should skip over would be very helpful to me and them, and would cost Hubdub nothing. (It would be easy to add the coding to do so.)

You may never have a problem, but I do. I dislike having to squint to see the word suspended or the slightly grayed out Cash In field. These are not eye-catching in the slightest--and they should be. It's poor design that they aren't.

Thanks--I wasn't aware of that. But I prefer to operate from the old-style Open Predictions page, not the sortable one. So I'd like it to be sortable too.

I'm aware of that. But why should I have to click and swap screens to find it? I'd rather it was provided automatically on the page that is my home base. There's room for a new field there, and computing it wouldn't slow anything down.

If the Dow closes below 10,000, it'll make headlines and a lot of ordinary people will start redeeming their mutual fund shares, etc. There's going to be pressure from hedge fund redemptions in the last quarter that will push the Dow close to 10,00 even if the bailout bill passes. It's unlikely we'll get to 9000 by the end of this year, let alone the end of October. But it's not such a longshot as the odds above (5%) imply. There may be unreported Big Bad News in the background that may emerge this month. The odds that it won't aren't 20-to1 against, but more like 5-to-1.

Part of this set should be questions end-of-the-week, end-of-the-month, and-of-the-quarter, and end-of-the-year questions, with more detail than just Up or Down. E.g., they should say Up 1%-2%, or Up 100-200 points.

Alternatively, or in addition, maybe "flash" bets that had suddenly made large "moves."

PS: Items that are flagged "Too Soon" to cash in should also employ color-coding. For instance, the Cash In oval could be grayed-in somewhat.

I'm not saying the Dow probably WILL go to 9000 by Oct. 31, just that it's more than 10% likely that it will. I think the most likely course of events is that some form of the TARP will be passed this week and that the Dow will bounce back a bit. By year-end I think 9500 would be about the best to be hoped for.

I quoted Cramer because he a mainstream, positively oriented stock-picker who was willing to say in stark terms what Paulson was hinting at with "dire."

Here's a link to the Esquire article:
http://www.esquire.com/print-this/steve-jobs-1008

The reason people kept betting NO (until after the close today) is that our training and psychology lead us to discount the possibility of "Black Swans". (See the best-seller of that title.) Here's a mind-opener. It's a quote from today's Mad Money by Jim Cramer:

"“Today’s 777-point drop was just the beginning,” Cramer said. ... Because the bailout plan didn’t pass, “the Great Depression II is back on the table.” In light of that possibility, a drop to 9000 is no longer "off the map." Once "the system" starts delaminating, which may begin tomorrow--or at least once that possibility is perceived--things can really come unglued and thousand-point drops occur. When they get going, no one wants to be a hero and stand in the path of the tsunami.

Macdailynews quotes an article out today in Esquire that strongly insinuates that Jobs is ill, despite his denials. That means that the most likely reason for the price decline is that this speculation was passed around Wall Street in whispers for the past month. It also means that, if Jobs announces his retirement, there won't be much downside left, because the shorts have "sold on the rumor." It will be time to "buy on the news."

The Dow just closed today at 10,365, down 777. Another 777 drop would take it down to just under 9600. A third such drop would hit the target. But it doesn't have to go that far that fast to make this a winner. If it merely ambles down to 9600 in two weeks, the YES side will have odds of over 25% (?), making it a winning bet if you cash in at that point.

Here's the latest speculation--a good one IMO--from AppleInsider, by poster MyopiaRocks. It also would qualify as a "new product":

"A Guess: There will be a docking station for macbooks. It will be a brick. It will connect wirelessly, not with some ugly dock-connection port. The laptop itself will have, at most, two plugs: power and display, possibly via usb. The brick will have more stuff: superdrive, firewire, usb, 2400 baud modem, ethernet, optical-audio out, cassette-tape backup, scsi, nubus, whatever. It can be out of sight, or sit next to (with a physical connection, if desired) your airport, printer, stereo, etc. The macbook itself will be like the air (similar size/shape/weight); people can buy a 2nd brick for their office/home if they want

Another item that would qualify as the transition product would be a souped-up, low-cost Mac Mini.

I haven't been able to find any pollsters estimates for third-party candidates this year. Does anyone have any? If not, what are the third parties themselves predicting?

PS: A new, low-end Macbook would count as "a new product," which is the last item in the list above, and the most popular choice among bettors.

In July Peter Oppenheimer said that the product transition was intended to prevent setting prices so high that they provided an umbrella for competitors, who could own the low end. Poster "johnqh" on AppleInsider therefore argued that the transition "is a lower margin product. Since Apple feels the need to squeeze competitors, it is a mass market product [with] which Apple hopes to achieve economies of scale quickly." Another poster there argued that only such a high-impact item would have the ability to reduce Apple's overall product margins in 2009 as substantially as Oppenheimer predicted. So I now think that, although Apple will probably add LEDs and perhaps other features to the latest versions of its Macbooks, those tweaks won't be as good a fit for what Oppenheimer predicted as a low-end addition to the Macbook lineup.

They could "sell" the measure as a fare reduction for kids! And/or maybe they could offer overweight passengers a free two-month membership in Weight Watchers!

Seriously, if this were ever going to be done, the first adopters couldn't be in the US, but in some poorer country with more of a tradition of high-handed regulations being imposed from above.

Hmm... If so, maybe we'll get to the point where they'll be auctioned on eBay.

Here's a week-old story (in the sidebar) saying the obvious: digital downloads and BluRay will co-exist:
http://www.cnet.com.au/wireless/streamingmedia/0,239028928,339292094,00.htm?feed=rss

And here's a quote from Business Week, 9/29/08, p. 70, implying a NO answer to this topic's question:
"Resarch firm Gfk predicts sales of Blu-ray hardware and discs will quadruple this year, to $1.5 billion and hit $8 billion in 2010."

Today I came across this post on the "Seeking Alpha" stock market opinion site. It suggests to me that this is a coming wave in laptops and that Apple likely has pioneered with it, inducing Dell to try to catch up. This is the product transition that I think is the best fit for what Oppenheimer described in July.

Dell To Put LEDs in All Its Laptops
September 24, 2008 By Michael Kanellos
They’re going bonkers for LEDs and energy efficiency at Dell.
The Round Rock, Texas-based PC maker plans to aggressively promote laptops with screens lit with light emitting diodes [LEDs]. Right now, most laptops come with screens lit by cold cathode florescent bulbs: Most manufacturers actually offer LEDs in only a few select models.
A year from now, LEDs will be available across all laptops from Dell in every region in the world, said Michael Murphy, who runs worldwide environmental affairs for Dell. By the end of 2009, 80 percent of the laptops Dell ships will have LED screens. By the end of 2010, Dell will only sell LED-based laptops.
Getting consumers to pick up LED laptops shouldn’t be too tough. Although more costly now, the price delta on these machines is dropping. Five months from now, the price tag on LED and standard laptops will be about the same, Murphy said. Dell’s costs for putting in LEDs will be a little higher, but the delta will begin to become negligible.
At the same time, LED laptops will sport a number of benefits. ...
[For the rest, go to http://seekingalpha.com/article/97202-dell-to-put-leds-in-all-its-laptops

Oops--I just did a little google research and withdraw my request for a settlement. I doubt that the Tavatron will lasso this little rascal, though, and will make further NO bets once the LHC bettors have thrown in the towel (cashed in their bets) and improved the NO-vote odds.

Now it's been announced that this latest delay will be longer than first announced and will prevent restart of the LHC until "late March or early April" (see source-quotation below). Since it will take a month after restart before even test-run beam collisions occur, and many months (probably over three months, according to the original schedule) after that before the power of these collisions is increased to a level beyond that of existing colliders, and many months after that (maybe a year) until the LHC runs at full power, which is probably what it will take to detect the Higgs boson, detection by the LHC is astronomically unlikely before the settlement date of april 7, 2009.

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/uk/science/article4813036.ece
From The [London] Times September 24, 2008
Large Hadron Collider must hibernate after wrong sort of big bang
Mark Henderson, Science Editor

On Friday the Large Hadron Collider (LHC) created the wrong sort of big bang — a fault so serious that CERN, the European Organisation for Nuclear Research, announced last night that the particle accelerator would have to be shut down until next spring for repairs. ........ It will take at least three to four weeks to warm the affected sector and then to open the damaged magnets for inspection, and then another month to re-chill them to their operating temperature. Even then, engineers will not be able to switch the LHC back on. The accelerator was always scheduled to be turned off for winter maintenance in December, and CERN officials confirmed last night that this was “obligatory” and would not be postponed.

No more beams of protons will be travelling around the collider’s 17-mile (27km) ring until early spring, and it will then be several weeks before it can start smashing them together to re-create the conditions of the big bang. Operations are likely to restart in late March or early April.

Buffet's investment in Goldman makes it likelier that someone will swoop in and pick up the remaining pieces of Lehmans.

How about going at a different time of day and/or different day of the week?

PS: I suspect that most of the recent decline of AAPL (from 160 to 130) has to do with concerns (or hopes by shorts) that the new Google Android phone will hurt iPhone sales significantly. It's just been released and it doesn't look as though its current configuration is a threat in terms of pricing or features. Similarly, a sneak peek/leak today at the Blackberry Storm, which is another purported iPhone threat, indicates its not likely to sweep many people off their feet, in its current form. So AAPL may recover to 150 within a couple of weeks. Maybe it'll get over 175 by year-end. What I think is out of the question is anything over 200 by that point.

AAPL closed below $130 today, with the Dow closing at 10,854. I think the Dow has much further to fall by year-end, and that many nervous investors will sell a stock with a high P/E ratio first when they seek safety. Maybe AAPL will advance strongly after its October 14 announcements and its sales figures later on, but it's hard for me to see it ending the year above $175 if the Dow closes below 10,000. It's rational for AAPL to command a much higher price than it has now, but "markets can stay irrational longer than investors can stay solvent." (Keynes)

Jim Cramer said today: "there is at least one opportunity in the space, he said. "It's all Wal-Mart. Wal-Mart could end up killing everyone." Consumers are trading down to more affordable outlets. Wal-Mart is the "ultimate stock," he said. "There's really no other retailer to own other than Wal-Mart.” Cramer called Wal-Mart a “gigantic, gigantic buy…because people just feel very poor.”"
From "A Gigantic Buy - Cramer's Stop Trading! (9/23/08)"

The story, "Labour Faces the Abyss," in today's sidebar, and at http://c.moreover.com/click/here.pl?r1609466775&f=9946
might concentrate a few minds in that party's leadership and make them seriously consider the partisan advantages of a second-preference (aka "instant runoff") voting system.

Here's a story just out, headlined: "Microsoft quashes dreams of 'Micro-hoo'
Commentary: Record buyback deal should kill talk of Yahoo deal"
At: http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/microsoft-buyback-quashes-all-hope/story.aspx?guid=%7B5AA33267%2DBB6B%2D457B%2DAC8F%2D3DE23FFCCEB0%7D

Headline on a story an hour ago: "Nomura gets Lehman's Asia business". The story also mentioned that Barclays and Nomura were bidding for Lehman's European offices.

Microsoft's announcement this morning to buy back $40 billion of its stock will empty its piggy bank and make a cash offer for Yahoo out of the question.

What I've started doing is getting into bets when their odds look out of line, and getting out of them when they become realistic. For instance, I just bet heavily that the Dow & Nasdaq would open Up today, at a point where the odds on "Up" were really long. I cashed them in when their values had risen sharply, but they were still less than even-money bets, just before the opening. As it happened, they both opened Down, but I made thousands.

The latest delay, from the helium leak, cuts another two months (17%) from the operating time initially allotted for this bet, so only 58% of its year is left. Since what's left is at the front end of the LHC's long-term (multi-year) ramp up to full power, it's unlikely to be operating within those seven months at the high power needed to detect the Higgs boson.

Here's my script for a new ad for Apple: An Animated Cartoon Ad for Apple

Here’s an animated cartoon that would be a neat ad for Apple. The artwork would be Simpson’s-like, especially the first view from above, which would resemble, in style, aerial views of “Springfield.”

1. An isolated medieval-style circular tower, surrounded by a small, shallow moat. A small white pennant with four color-quadrants flutters from its top. It has a window about a dozen feet high, with a 2-by-4-type crossbar holding it shut from the outside.

2. A medieval-style princess (in a pointed hat with a gauzy trailer) sits in her room, which is dark and gloomy, with cobwebs and roaches on the floor. She is squinting at the window, which is heavily coated with grime, and trying to paint the trees outside.

3. She spies an elephant approaching the moat, lowering his trunk into it, and drinking. She quickly paints “Wash Me” on the back of her canvas. Then she places it in the window.

4. The elephant notices the sign and gives the window a mighty squirt, cleaning it. The princess removes the sign and gives him a smile and/or a wave. The elephant, with the “fingertips” of his trunk, then lifts out the crossbar and drops it. The princess swings open the window and stretches out her arms. The elephant wraps his trunk around her waist and lifts her out through the window and onto the back of his neck. He then returns to drinking from the moat.

5. A fire-breathing dragon hops up, making ducking and lunging motions and grinning wolfishly. A squirt from the elephant and the dragon’s flames are extinguished; he stands back, thoroughly drenched. (A hissing sound is heard as his flames go out.) The elephant trumpets in triumph and walks off.

6. A series of snippets show the elephant crossing the moat, covering lots of landscape (putting the tower miles in the distance), stepping over a fence, and stopping in an idyllic orchard.

7. The princess grabs a rope ladder and lifts herself onto the porch of a charming, hobbit-style tree-house in one of the trees. Through a picture window, its inside can be seen to be attractive. She looks around the charming landscape while the camera’s eye tracks what she sees.

8. The princess reaches out to an apple hanging from the tree, takes a bite, removes it from her mouth, and smiles.

9. The camera zooms in on the bitten-out apple, which morphs into the striped Apple logo.

10. The words “The Grass IS Greener” (in Apple-stripes) fade in, accompanied by the sounds of an elephant squirting, an angry hiss, and an elephant trumpeting.

11. The apple morphs into a smiley face fades in and winks, then looks up and off to the side while whistling with an “innocent” look that says, “Mind you, I’ve said nothing.” (There’s a standard emoticon (on some sites) that captures this look beautifully.)

People will appreciate being amused by a witty, soft-sell ad like this, which will thereby predispose them toward looking Macs. I hope Apple will be willing to “think different,” ad-wise, and run this up the flagpole in a few test markets.

An enjoyable aspect of the ad to Apple Insiders would be its sly subliminal digs at MS through symbols like windows, vistas, walls, bugs, moats, migration, flag, etc.

As of today, Walmart is up 40% over its year-ago price. It is the best-performing stock in the DJIA, doing twice as well as the second-place performer, Macdonald's.

I just bet $20 on "14 days ..." at 2%--cheap insurance.

I voted NO (heavily), but I think it would be wise to wait a few more days--maybe even a week--before settling this politically touchy question, to avoid the appearance of unfairly rushing to judgment. It would be better for there to be a few more quotes from the scientists involved conceding that this year has failed to dip below last year's minimum.

If Apple comes out with a low-end Macbook at "an aggressive entry-level price point," as Citi is predicting, will that count as a "price cut"? I wouldn't consider it to be one, because a cut implies a reduction of something that previously had a higher value.

If other bunny ranches get the idea that this would be a good publicity stunt, there could be several auctions like this one within a month, which would drive down offers on this auction. I doubt this sale will be transacted at over $50,000. (Hmm--how will it be verified that this isn't just a "straw sale" (for publicity value)?)

Oops--correction to the above. There've been 2 deaths so far in Sept. (There were zero deaths in August.) This puts us about on track for 143 deaths this year, assuming 2 more deaths in Sept. from as-yet unreported casualties from tornadoes spun off from Ike.

If this question had been phrased as, "Will Lehman still be functioning as an independent company by year-end?" there'd have been less ambiguity.

Deaths this Sept. were two, for a year-to-date total of 123. The average death-count for the remaining three months (for 2005-07) is 16, so this year is still on track toward 139 deaths.

@#5: I suspect that what you have in mind is that the Mac Mini will be merged with the Apple TV, which is a rumor I've heard. The last item in the list above ("Something else (for Apple TV, a new product, etc.)") would cover that. However, even if that new product is announced, that won't trump something that better fits the Apple CFO's statement above, which implies something that will have a major effect on Apple's overall margins.

@#6: The iPod changes will count if there is nothing that is a better fit (for Apple's July statement) announced at the October 14 product announcement.

Oops (regarding my "flag-for-review" comment): there IS a duplicate of this question. But I don't see why I should be penalized by having my bets on this question voided. It wasn't my error--it was the site's, and it should bear the consequence. I shouldn't have to go poking around to see if there's a duplicate question every time I want to make a bet, lest my bets be voided. If all user's had to bear that risk, it would making Hubdub playing more burdensome--and unduly burdensome.

Here's a snippet from the "Botched Rescue Effort ..." story in the sidebar today:
"Preliminary evidence suggests the deaths were a result of an "oxygen-deficient atmosphere," said RCMP Const. Holly Marks, adding it could take days before the exact cause of the accident is known."

PS: Please note that "ceasing operations" doesn't imply going out of business permanently, just shutting down all motor home plants until demand revives.

PS: There are still 6% of the money on the 7-9 day category, even though it's been ruled out. I'm surprised people with ruled-out bets don't cash them in before they become valueless at expiration, but I guess there's a psychological block against deliberately taking a loss. (I've noticed this in other bets here--and it's been observed in the behavior of out-of-the-money option holders on the stock market, when their options near expiration.)

I have $320 down on 10-13. It looks as though the dangerous days are passing, and in a week the odds will be something like 4 to 1 against there being a 65-degree day, based on the average high-day record shown on the Accuweather chart, here: http://www.accuweather.com/forecast-climo.asp?partner=mcclatchy&traveler=1&zipChg=1&zipcode=99501&metric=0

That table is what I'm using to follow daily temperatures. So far there hasn't been a day above 60 in September.

@205: The place to get real steals on McCain (sometimes below 20%, although only briefly) is on a parallel question (Which party will win the election?), at: http://www.hubdub.com/e/Market/Who_will_win_the_US_Presidential_Election_in_2008_747

Here's a snipp[et from a story in the sidebar dated two weeks ago:

Piers Morgan not fooled by Madonna / Monday, August 18 2008, 20:49 BST
By Daniel Kilkelly, Entertainment Reporter

Piers Morgan has poured scorn on Madonna and Guy Ritchie's divorce denials, claiming that the pair have no credibility. Tabloid reports have speculated that the couple will announce their separation in November. However, both Madonna and Ritchie have responded by issuing statements to the contrary.

Morgan revealed that he lost faith in Madonna after receiving false information from her publicist Liz Rosenberg when he was editor of The Mirror. "Purely on the back of her firm denial, I'm going to have a few quid on a Madonna divorce by Christmas," Morgan explained.

Here's a snippet from a current sidebar story, "No Vacation for Fleetwood":

On Thursday, August 28 pre-market, Fleetwood Enterprises Inc. (FLE) reported a loss of $0.42 ($0.41 cont. op) per share or $29.1 million vs. a loss of $0.04 per share or $2.3 million. $0.01 was due to discontinued operations. Revenue fell to $289.9 million from $488.3 million, down 41% vs. a year ago. Analysts expected a loss of $0.18 per share on $346.8 million in revenue, missing expectations more than double.

President and CEO Elden Smith stated: "Unfortunately, the rapid and accelerating decline of sales in the motor home industry during the first quarter caused heavy operating losses that were exacerbated by an aggressive discounting environment and downtime at our plants."

On August 20, Moody’s cut FLE’s rating to “junk” status. ... A year ago, FLE’s market cap was around $750 million, now it sits at 163 million, a testament to the power of the rise in oil prices as well as a tightening of financing available. Both units suffered severe losses, especially the RV unit, which is in the midst of the worst year of a four-year downtrend. A flooding of deeply discounted RV’s from now (and soon) out-of-business dealers should put tremendous pressure on FLE now and in the near future.

Here are snippets from one of the stories in the sidebar today:

OLPC partners with Amazon, ITU Sep. 05, 2008

Amazon will sell One Laptop Per Child (OLPC)'s Linux-compatible XO notebook starting in November, says a news story. [Another story says the price will be $200 for single-unit purchases.] The story also says OLPC is partnering with the International Telecommunication Union (ITU) to help distribute the notebooks, and the next-generation XO-2 will ship in 1Q 2010.

The XO-2 will dispense with the the keyboard and touchpad and depend solely on dual 16x9-proportioned, sunlight-readable touchscreens, says OLPC. ... The goal is to deliver the device at a volume price of $75 to large educational buyers. [But not this year.]
............
Over the last year the XO's price rose to twice the initially touted $100, leading governments to back off of plans to make high-volume purchases.

The quote above implies that any offer Microsoft made would be below $30. Here's another quote from that story, which indicates even such a lowball offer is unlikely: "The chances of Microsoft still buying Yahoo are negligible, MS Chief Financial Officer Chris Liddell said at a Citigroup conference in New York. ... We continue to view Yahoo as a declining asset. ... The time came and went."

Here's a story in today's Seattle Times:

By MICHAEL LIEDTKE

The Associated Press

SAN FRANCISCO — Yahoo's stock dove to its lowest level in nearly five years today, magnifying the challenge facing the Internet company as its management tries to justify its rebuff of Microsoft 's $47.5 billion takeover bid. Shares fell $1.01, or 5.4 percent, 1 to $17.75, a price unseen since October 2003.

The downturn left Yahoo's market value about $12 billion below what shareholders would have received if the company had accepted Microsoft's takeover offer of $33 a share in May. Microsoft sweetened the offer after Yahoo repeatedly rejected an initial bid of $31 a share made in January.

Thanks, Tisha. I just realized I should have added this option after my third item above:
"Touch technology in any Mac &/or iPod."

#202, nigeleccles: "we felt it made sense to restrict the other options. The probability of neither Obama or McCain being the next president is exceptionally low."

I'm marking your words.

I've been in an out of this bet. I just bet 100 on 10-13. I'm hoping Alaska isn't prone to Indian summers.

Someone should post a similar question about whether the identity of the Zodiac killer will be confirmed to be the person his stepson has recently accused. Here's a link to the story:
http://cbs13.com/local/zodiac.killer.kaufman.2.805799.html

I created this question because it specifically addresses the matter of the "product transition" Apple referred to, not just what new bit of hardware Apple happens to announce first will be. That question, and my comments, can be found at: http://www.hubdub.com/m12315/What_will_Apples_next_major_hardware_release_be

OK, I've created a question that asks:
What will Apple's "Product Transition" be?"
It's here: http://www.hubdub.com/m14893/What_will_Apples_Product_Transition_be

There are two one-point gaps in the questions. The middle question should have been 125-115 (not 124-115), and the question below it should have been 115-109 (not 114-109).

Actually, to parallel the second question down (which used the round numbers 125-130), the fourth question should have been "115-110", and the 5th should have been "below 110" or "110-" (to parallel "130+")

PS: If a separate question is not formulated for the "product transition" feature, I foresee heated protests from posters here if the question here is settled on the basis of what new feature was first announced at the press conference. (Even though your clarification spelled that out.)

News stories today claim the revelation will occur on Sept. 9. I hope someone who knows how to formulate questions will post a question addressing what the "product transition" to be announced then will be. (As opposed to the topic of this question.)

That's my count too.

PS: I'msuch a novice that I wouldn't be able to handle posting my question. I urge someone else to do so--after editing it to their taste.

One of the advantages of my question is that a certain sort of multiple outcome is avoided: Apple was referring to only a single innovation when it referred to this product transition. We won't have to worry if multiple innovations are announced at their next conference, because only one of them--the one they link to their June announcement--will be "it."

As for the problem of an innovation that overlaps product lines, such as LEDs in the screens of both Macs and iPods, for instance, or something that I can't anticipate, that's unlikely to happen. If it does, I'd suggest splitting the winnings between bettors on both possibilities, or voiding the question. By its nature, this is a question that is virtually impossible to formulate in a watertight way ahead of time. But that shouldn't forestall the question, IMO.

OK, here's my draft. But I'm not very knowledgeable on this topic, and therefore I urge others to suggest additions and other changes. (My bet will be on the first and third items below.) However, there is no need for me to define what this product transition will be, because Apple will make it clear what it was referring to when it unveils it. (If it doesn't, questioners at the conference will draw that info out of them.)

What will the "product transition" Apple announced in July turn out to be?

A specialized chip in one or more Macs that encodes & decodes video feeds. (One major Wall St. analyst has endorsed this theory. I'd give this a 8% chance as a start.)
A specialized chip in one or more Macs that performs some other function, such as encryption, malware protection, or software metering. (I wish these improvements were in the offing, but no one important has endorsed them. I'd give this a 3% chance.)
LEDs to provide backlighting in one or more Macs. (One major Wall St. analyst has endorsed this theory. I'd give this a 8% chance as a start.)
Bundled third-party software (e.g., virtualization software or Windows) in one or more Macs. (This is another wish of mine. Columnist Dvorak suggested a year ago that Windows and OS X were moving toward a merger, so it's not out of the question. I'd give this a 3% chance as a start.)
Something other than the above in one or more Macs. (20%)
Something other than the above for the iPod line. (20%, in line with bets on the existing question above.)
Something other than the above for the iPhone. (3%, in line with bets on the existing question above.)
Something not covered above. (35%)

Hillary Clinton is trading at 3.5% as next president on Intrade, and never went below 1% or 2% in recent weeks, which indicates that people who had something to lose considered her election within the bounds of possibility. So it was presumptuous of Hubdub to remove her, and Other, from the ballot. (I had been waiting for Other to offer really good odds and bet heavily on it--and at just that point it was removed.) If Hubdub wanted to pare down the list, it should at least have provided links to all the removed possibilities in its clickable "More" section.

I agree the low-value options should be restored. Hubdub will look foolish if one of the major candidates withdraws, etc.

Here's today's story:


Stage set for hostile takeover of Lehman: analyst
By Joyce Koh
Last update: 2:29 p.m. EDT Aug. 21, 2008
Comments: 6
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- The stage is set for a hostile bid to takeover Lehman Brothers (LEH:

LEH 13.70, -0.03, -0.2%) , said Ladenburg Thalmann's analyst Dick Bove in a research note Thursday, as he cut his price target on the stock to $20 from $23 previously. "Investors are unwilling to accept any positive view of the company; management is unwilling to sell out at a deeply distressed value," said Bove. He cited this as a reason why reported negotations with foreigners to buy a stake in Lehman fell through. But Bove said a deep pocket buyer could wait until assets mature before they sell them, and could hence sell Lehman's investment management unit Neuberger Berman for more than the value of the whole company and then basically own Lehman Brothers for nothing. He concluded in his note: "Will it happen? I do not know. Should it happen? Absolutely, opportunities like this are rarely evident in the markets."

Here's today's story:
"Lehman nearly received $5 bln in funds from Korea: report
By Steve Goldstein
Last update: 7:01 a.m. EDT Aug. 20, 2008
LEH 13.50, +0.43, +3.3%) nearly reached a deal to raise almost $5 billion from South Korean wealth funds and institutions, but the pact disintegrated, The New York Post reported, citing sources familiar with the matter."

Here's what Briefing.com said today:
"Lehman Brothers (LEH 13.10, -1.93) fell 12.8% following several negative media reports, including a Wall Street Journal article that said Lehman's third quarter has turned ugly."

PS: If homeowners need to raise cash to pay mortgages, or no longer feel like driving their motorhomes much, many used motorhomes will come onto the market. This may be happening already. If so, the decline in sales by RV dealers may tell only part of the story. If the mix of used vs. new vehicles sold is rising, then mfgr's. sales would be down more than 50%.

Hi: I'm posting this here rather than clicking "flag for review" because it has become inactive (unclickable)--this is a possible system bug that should be fixed. I've noticed it elsewhere, after I made use of the feature by clicking it. My suggestion was that the words "or mantle" be appended to the question. IOW, both core and mantle should count. (Maybe "far underground" would do instead.) Any sort of concentrated mass or masses of uranium deep beneath our feet would be a major discovery, and we shouldn't split hairs about how deep it or they are located.

Here's an AP story from last week (at http://www.cnbc.com/id/26183030/for/cnbc ):

RV makers fall, survey shows motorhome sales down
updated 12:36 p.m. PT, Wed., Aug. 13, 2008

NEW YORK - Shares of recreational vehicle makers declined Wednesday after an Avondale Partners survey of 70 RV dealers showed motorhome sales plunged in June.

The 51.1 percent drop, compared with retail sales in the same month last year, is not unexpected considering the 23-month downturn in the RV market and a 54.4 percent decrease in wholesale shipments in June, the report said.

Winnebago Industries Inc. maintained the top position in motorhomes with 18.5 percent of the market share with Fleetwood Enterprises following closely behind at 16.1 percent.

But analyst Kathryn Thompson trimmed her estimate for Winnebago to 30 cents per share from 50 cents per share for the 2009 fiscal year, citing slowness in the motorhome industry. ... She noted that Pilgrim RV, which was the 15th largest towable manufacturer in the industry, went out of business last week.

Here's an interesting opinion relevant to this question:


Ex-IMF economist sees large U.S. bank collapsing: report
By Steve Goldstein
Last update: 4:34 a.m. EDT Aug. 19, 2008
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Kenneth Rogoff, the former chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, reportedly said Tuesday that a large U.S. bank will collapse in the next few months. "We're not just going to see mid-sized banks go under in the next few months, we're going to see a whopper, we're going to see a big one, one of the big investment banks or big banks," Rogoff told a conference in Singapore, according to a Reuters report

Would it be possible to set up a separate question such as this:
"What will the product transition Apple announced in July turn out to be?"

That is what most of the buzz and speculation is about. But the current question doesn't give people a way to bet on it, because its winner will be the new product that is announced first at the next Mac conference. There might well be three major hardware releases announced, with the important one saved for last.

PS: Note that in the second paragraph of the introduction to this item, it was stated that the LHC at CERN was expected to start operating in June. Delays have put that back three months, meaning that Higgs's estimate of "within a year" has now had 25% of its operating time cut off.

I voted No because in one of the stories I read on the LHC, it was stated that it wouldn't be run at its highest power level until sometime in 2009. I suspect it is only at, or close to, such elevated levels that unusual discoveries like the Higgs Boson will be made.

PS: "DIJA" should be "DJIA". This typo may be the reason why stories about the JSE are appearing in the related news sidebar.

Thanks for creating a stock market question that looks ahead for a shorter period than the end of the year, and a longer period than the next day. Please keep posting these weekly / monthly questions.

I hope you repeat this question every month. The day of reckoning in the question on year-end prices is so far off that wishful betting isn't penalized.

Does anyone know if it's up to 11 days yet?

From the link above, the average number of deaths from Aug. thru Dec. in the three years 2005-2007 was 19. So the expectation for 2008 is 139.

Here's a quote from New Scientist, Aug 13, 2008, p. 4:
"Last week, CERN announced that the date for this switch-on will be 10 September, with collisions between counter-rotating beams planned for late October."

Here's the link:
http://www.newscientist.com/channel/fundamentals/quantum-world/mg19926693.200-first-successful-test-of-most-powerful-accelerator.html?feedId=quantum-world_rss20

Clicking on the link above shows that there have been 120 deaths this year through July.

Wikipedia was already aware of this switch-on date: see item 8 above. This announcement is just a confirmation of their schedule. Also note that, according to Wikipedia, "the first high-energy collisions are planned to take place after the LHC is officially unveiled, on October 21, 2008." That's what this question is about: the date that high-energy collisions occur. (See clarification.)

No, what I meant was that it would be more natural if the list looked with the higher prices at the top, like this:

DJIA will close at or above 12,000.01
DJIA will close between 11,900.01 and 12,000.00
DJIA will close between 11,800.01 and 11,900.00
DJIA will close between 11,700.01 and 11,800.00
DJIA will close between 11,600.01 and 11,700.00
DJIA will close between 11,500.01 and 11,600.00
DJIA will close between 11,400.01 and 11,500.00
DJIA will close at or below 11,400.00

If I might make a suggestion: I'd find the list above more natural if the higher prices were toward the top, and the lower prices toward the bottom.

A couple of guys from Georgia claim they have a Bigfoot body in a freezer. There will be a press conference Friday in Pao Alto. Here's a link to a thread about it by Loren Coleman, who is cautiously optimistic, on his Cryptomundo blog:
http://www.cryptomundo.com/cryptozoo-news/ga-gorilla/

PS: Another way to put it would be to say that a high-energy collider isn't functioning and producing data until "high-energy collisions" are taking place. Which won't be until Oct. 21. (At the earliest.)

Here's what Wikipedia's entry for "Large Hadron Collider" says, at http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Hadron_Collider :

"The initial particle beams are due for injection in August 2008,[2] the first attempt to circulate beam through the entire LHC is scheduled for September 10, 2008,[3] and the first high-energy collisions are planned to take place after the LHC is officially unveiled, on October 21, 2008.[4]

When activated, it is theorized that the collider will produce the elusive Higgs boson ..."

IOW, the collider is not scheduled to produce data until three weeks after Oct. 1.

PPS: I view the "producing data" phrase as meaning "producing scientific data," not just "producing diagnostic data" that would only be useful for callibrating the gadget.