swilson

My chickens have just fled the coup.

Or, what if the impeachment process begins before 9/7 but doesn't end until afterwards. Impeachment would surely take months (wouldn't it?).

I see that this blew up and died while I was in absentia.

@newswrangler, you were correct.
@dieseldog, I'm not sure if your passion stems from loving the question, loving the freedom to create such a question or a little of both, but either way, I'm delighted you are so passionate about it.

I'm not saying that the question doesn't have a place here, it's just my decision to make a different kind of contribution to the site. In looking over my previous questions, a lot of them were silly little random things like this and I just wanted to move towards selecting more news oriented markets. It'd be great if someone took over the question, after all, it can grow up and move on, it'll always be my baby. I'd be so proud...

I've spent the better part of the morning looking for an update to this market and can not find anything beyond April 15th. There's no indication of whether the MV Hounslow was ever released by the UAE Coast Guard, what happened to the two crew members, or whether they ever followed up with the missing captain.

There's no available record of the MV Hounslow or who it's owner is. There's no news or update on the cable owner's corporate site either.

To the best of my abilities, (I'm no sailor but I used the reported size of the anchor to determine rough size of the ship) here's a picture of a ship around the same size (http://www.shipphotos.co.uk/pages/mscariane.htm). Now, why was a ship of this size sailing into the Dubai gulf with only two crew members, and no captain, on board?

I'm doubting a conspiracy but I do believe this story is supposed to be dead.

With no settlement date, I'm interested to follow up on this one in a month or two and see if anything pops up.

Here's a site to settle this when the time comes:
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/torn/monthlytornstats.html

Frank - check out Hubdub rules at: http://www.hubdub.com/public/goodquestion
Under the section on suspension (2.2.4), the following item is the basis for the extension:
* Suspend dates should not be set for any date greater than 7 days in advance of the expected settlement date.

Considering the random nature of this question and the questionable "newsworthiness", this should be the last week of this market series. However, I will spend the week coming up with a new NYT related question. Perhaps, "What will the readership of NYT be at the end of the week?"??? Something of that nature. I'm open to ideas.

I sympathize with him, I GET IT. I can't count how many times I've contemplated Inanimate Objecticide in the privacy of my own home. There should be a passion clause on this and the charges should be dismissed without prejudice.

Anthrax, Alzheimer's, Average, Inflation.
For what it is worth, in 5 weeks, this market has only once been settled as a Vowel. Regardless of the outcome, the odds will be set higher in favor of a consonant next week.

While truly fascinating, I wish someone here would have given me the volume of gold per ounce rather than the well written dissertations on global warming. It has made for great reading - as much as my fragile ADD plagued mind could handle, anyway.

swilson's $0.02 -
-this will be settleable within 2 weeks
-a bird or anything short of a flying Vespa would not likely cause that kind of damage, especially to any part of the plane other than the bow
-no fire, no "bomb"
-my money is on explosive decompression initiated by metal fatigue
-another great question by valornhonor

aregine is 10? Wow, that's one smart and capable kid. Awesome.

Recent coverage (http://apnews.excite.com/article/20080724/D9249LTO0.html) describe rain amounts in Brownsville so far are 6-12 inches with another 3-7 expected overnight. All settlement requests provide quotes of "up to 12 inches" or "at least 12 in some areas". Certainly, some areas in Brownsville received 12 inches, some only received 6. aregine, welcome to what is likely going to be your first executive decision here.

Two decisions should be made. First, should additional rain count? Second, how do you calculate a total amount of rain in an area measuring 80 square miles when it varies from one end to the next?

My $0.02. Once you decide whether "additional rain" should be counted, average the lowest and highest.

Well, as a former Chiefs season ticket holder, I can assure you they have no trouble kicking people out. It happened a couple times a year in the area I was in and I'm guessing I wasn't just coincidently in the area reserved for hooligans.

I'm wagering yes but I'm worried about the ability to settle it based on the publication of the event in a major (or even minor) news source. However, if there is any such thing, I'm probably among the most likely to see it here in KC so I'll be sure to let ya' all know.

Hey Krujis, I'd lover to wager on this but I have a couple clarifying questions. What constitutes a "strong" earthquake? Is this within a certain radius of Beijing?

swilson's $0.02 -
I think these are two equally entertaining components of Hubdub "wagering". First, the active markets; the indices. These markets allow users to become actively engaged in the wagering and, like the indices themselves, provide a unique and fast-paced experience (and must be gold for the stay rate).
Second, the long term markets; those markets wagered in with the intention of seeing the investment through to settlement. These markets can provide both a sense of investment, commitment and are often a little safer.
I enjoy them both and hope Hubdub finds a place for both.

Doesn't this market usually close just before 4 EST? Looks like it is scheduled to close just before 3 EST.

"Given a Shovel, Digging Deeper Into Debt". Its a "G"!

My disconnect seems to be in the open figure of 11,436.56. The site I track this on (http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/), shows the opening price of 11,491.20 but a couple others I've checked show the 11,436.56. I'm confused about the difference between the numbers but atleast I understand the math.

Does anyone know the basis for those two numbers (11,436.56 and 11,491.20)?

Can someone help me understand this? I'm still not getting it. Here's the numbers I'm coming up with. They indicate the difference in open and close was less than 6 points and the difference in close to close was 49.91 - both less than 50. Either way, shouldn't this market have been settled as under 50?

11,496.57 +49.91 / +0.44%
Open: 11,491.20
Prev. Close: 11,446.66
Difference between 07/17/08 close and 07/18/08 close: +49.91
Difference between 07/17/08 close and 07/18/08 open: +44.54
Difference between 07/18/08 open and 07/18/08 close: + 5.37

VNH, I second the nomination for best question. I generally don't wager on markets this far out but this is an extraordinarily well thought out and written question. Very creative food for the brain. Thank You! You deserve a CE position.

Why would 4 and 5 be so lopsidedly high? 23% to the rest of the market's numbers around 6-8%. That strikes me as statistically impossible given this market asks a question settled completely randomly. hmmm???

Have I missed something? Hancock earned 107,321 in 5 days and Wall-E earned 128,132 in 10 days. I would have expected a $5k wager in this market to lose share but not 3,500 in less than an hour. Either I'm going to lose big or win big. I'm contemplating putting another 4k down on Hancock though. This isn't about what movie I liked best, the numbers speak for themselves...

I believe the answer to this question is an unequivocal yes. Ofcourse, money changed hands in the process of bringing these hostages to freedom. Will that ever be proven to the extent this market could be settled as yes? I don't think so.

Love the pic, thanks for the chuckle.

Key - Why is the settlement date August 9th for an event occurring at the 2008 olympics?

I believe that I've hit all the links listed here, being news sites, they are not static so the original placement has changed and I can't find any video. From what I've seen though, Hillary and Barack were captured shaking two hands below their heads and waving two hands above their heads but not waving for hands or shaking two above. I'm ok with losing the relatively low amount I have wagered in this market if it's truly lost but I haven't seen any quantifyable evidence that this market has should be settled. Again, I'm ok if it should be but somebody show me the picture or video.

Who's to say what Angelina is expecting. She may be expecting two girls, but she might have 2 boys. How would that be settled?

I could have made a FORTUNE!

Ya'all understand this market, right? It just came within 32 points of being settled as Yes and the odds are still sitting at 79% no? I REALLY wish I hadn't instituted my "Don't wager on your own markets rule"........

I have to weigh in here. I have seen tragic abuse for the sake of winning a horse race, I've noticed though that BB's rider and owner have been very thoughtful in the care they show that horse. I really believe the jockey felt BB go out from under him in the Belmont and instead of taking the crop to him, he let off him for fear that there was something wrong with him. I'm not a pro but I am comfortable in saying that if the trainer, owner and rider felt there was a chance BB's health or safety was in danger, they'd scratch him.

Exactly!

robmar, I agree with you and thought about that after the yahoo DJIA 52 week low was provided. To account for the daily fluctuations as the settlement describes, we will need to use http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^DJI AND http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/.

Me and 4 monitors, my A.D.D affected mind would short circuit, give up and shut down.

I agree, but who cares what I think - I'm not participating in it. That was the intent though.

I use http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/. And again, the market is that if the average reaches or falls below 11,634.81 throughout any day, even if it closes higher, this market should be settled as yes.

Jennie, thanks for the tip, I did flag it some time yesterday, I don't recall if it was in the morning or evening. I'll try the Contact Us link.

I'd like robmar and destry to comment as they were the ones that first voiced a concern. In any case though, I hope we can re-open this soon as we've lost a day and a half of trading and even though I'm not participating in this market, I'm competitive and had hoped it would get a lot of activity.

Again, it's my understanding that the diffence between the two numbers is explained above. I'm open to suggestions but I've seen more difficult markets to settle. This has quantifyable objectives and hard dates.

It's worth noting that I do not participate in my own markets.

I can't explain it but here are 3 more that say 11,634.82
http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/dow/
http://investdb.theglobeandmail.com/invest/investSQL/gx.index_today?pi_symbol=DJIA-I&pi_action=
http://moneycentral.msn.com/detail/stock_quote?Symbol=%24Indu
http://investing.businessweek.com/research/markets/detail/marketdetail.asp?marketCode=US%26DJI

Perhaps the difference is in Yahoo's description of the 52 week "range". My guess (and this is strictly a guess), is that Yahoo includes the fluctuations throughout the day and in calculating the 52 week "low", strictly speaking, those fluyctuations are not included - only the closing average is.

For the purpose of this market, I recommend that we use the 52 week low given most often (11634.82) and if, during some day's trading between now and June 30th, it reaches 11634.81, it will be settled as yes.

But let the democracy begin. Is there dissention?

I take that back, Nigel did clarify in the settlements section. He says we should wait for Guiness to establish the category. I'd feel a lot better if this market was re-established - even if it was suspended as the suspend date has been reached. I'd be a little miffed that I lost 1K without the opportunity to pull it after they reached the 1.6M but before Guiness approved it but that would be more palatable than having it settled before the criteria for settlement were obtained.

ltmod, I flagged this last night for the same reason - I've not gotten a response.

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

No problem smidge, your post certainly wasn't percieved as hateful. I just hope that settling this isn't as tough as keeping up with the comments.

tocm, good point, and excellent solution, yes.

OMG. I'm hoping that this isn't going to be that contentious. Let's go with X or a derivitive of X. Is that copesthetic? If there's any doubt, I trust that Ryan will make the right decision.

Fewer than a dozen more days like today and there wont be a tenth digit.

Looks like this one has been hidden away somewhere today. I'm surprised it hasn't gotten more attention.

Regarding my statement "I'm posting it soley to make people aware of the incident and in hopes that we can come to terms with the type of society we have become.", I was referring more to the driver that hit him and took off however, I would like to live in a society where the traffic stopped and everyone got out of their cars to see if they could do something. Anything really, other than keep driving. Who knows though what they were thinking, maybe some intended to go get help, who knows.

I see you can view editions at that link. The first to be displayed is the NYC edition. Let's use that one.

There's only one visible at the link specified (Settlement details (some hidden): As visible at: http://www.nytimes.com/pages/todayspaper/index.html). I do not know if that is the NYC or National edition but it's the one I'm referring to.

Of course you do...

You're right newswrangler - the suspend date was the wrong Saturday.

(disclosure - I have in the past but no long plan to participate in my own questions).

Oh, no, I'm not driving this bus. Whether pink is red or other is nothing I'm going to get upset about. Let the consensus rule. I think I should create one "What color will the new first lady wear to the inauguration?" though as I'm rather fond of the drama. I can't help but think what Michelle Obama or Cindy McCain would wear would be a little different (Mrs. Obama - Blue, Mrs. McCain - Peach).

owl. Pink would fall under the Red umbrella, magenta would not. Magenta is to red and blue what Pink is to Red. (Jenni, I see what you mean). I can't believe I'm at work having this conversation.

A little background, I have an obscenely short attention span. I get so wrapped up in the minutia of the questions here on Hubdub that sometimes I just have to start clicking random buttons. So, I created what I thought was a fun no-brainer. Jenni (oh, THAT Jenni), I hope your comment isn't a harbinger of doom.
I looked up Magenta on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Magenta) and the technical composition is equal parts red and blue. So in the case of magenta, it's my opinion that magenta should be settled as "other". However, if Hillary wears a magenta outfit, I think I personally would fly to where ever you are and hand you a certificate of your H$ winnings.
Wikipedia seems to be very helpful with colors, I would think that we could use it for settlement. I doubt though that the color she chooses will be so subjective that it's not obvious.

infernal, the settlement rules now state and have stated in previous editions, "The "Front page headline" is defined as the text accompanying and displayed above the largest photograph on the front page of Sunday's print edition."

Does this work? Let me know if you think it should be further clarified.

of course. I should have covered my bet with a couple hundred on the 8% to come in under 500k. I may have made up the 1k I lost on 500-750.

Define "linked to". My guess is that if an arsonist is identified (it won't be Fiddy but...) they'll probably claim "Fiddy made me do it", of course he will deny it and there would have to be a trial and that wouldn't happen before August 31st. Is someone's claim that Fiddy was involved good enough to settle that he was involved?

hhhelllllloooo?????? Is there anyone here? All I hear are crickets... I had much higher hopes for this question than $3,000 in activity in 3 days.

I already have $1000 on it - which is about as high as I go unless it's a no-brainer and it's a bargain. You'd have to pony up a little more than $50.

Oh, THAT Jenni. 80% perhaps, but that's in elections they know they can effect. I see there's a huge spread between 21%-31% (= to 500k-750k of 2.3M) and your 80% but pundits (http://www.observer.com/2008/puerto-rico-primary-looms-smaller, http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap_campaignplus/20080526/ap_ca/puerto_rico_primary) estimate less than 750k or, more vaguely, a low turnout. However, just the fact that the turnout is a topic of conversation on the island is bound to increase turnout. I'm putting my foot down...first instinct and all... I'll stick with under 750. In fact, maybe we can make this a bidding war, I'll consider a dollar for dollar wager on under 750 with Jenni's over 750...

diesel, wha??? 750,000 is 32% of 2.3 Million...right? ...and who's Jenni?

It's worth noting that while there are 3.9 Million residents, only 2.3 Million are registered voters. Lest you wonder if they could have a regitration drive, that 2.3 Million represents most of the residents who are atleast 18 years of age.

Nevermind, I see now,"Other" means no tape will be released. Although I'd say that's a no. I understand this is the will of the questioner.

I understand "Yes" meaning Al Qaeda will call for the use of WMD and "No" meaning Al Qaeda will not call for the use of WMD, but define please, "Other".

High of 129.290 so far today, May 20th...

Okay, nigeleccles, what if Microsoft acquires just a part of Yahoo?

An update:
http://www.thelocal.de/11087/20080404/
Police have a description of a number of teens seen in the area at the time and as of early April were contemplating DNA tests for all 1200 teens in the community.

Several news sources are reporting that the Mega Millions Lottery officials have confirmed the winning ticket was sold. A man in Georgia is claiming to have purchased the ticket but lottery officials have not confirmed he is the winner. http://news.google.com/news?sourceid=navclient&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADBR_enUS237US240&q=mega+millions&um=1&hl=en&sa=X&oi=news_result&resnum=4&ct=title

After all the conflict with questions I've been a part of lately, I wouldn't touch this one with a 10 foot Euro.

I think whether she loses on March 4th is irrelevent. While I wouldn't think she'd drop out if she wins both primaries, the real question is will she drop out of the race. So the question may be will she end her candiacy (is that suspend her candidacy - which is a status that I believe Mitt Romney still holds, or officially ends)? These questions sound small but I've lost a third of my worth in 4 days due to "technicalities".

Erik, with that logic "none/blow up into tiny pieces" could have never been a valid option.

Are we seriously pontificating this resolution? The question was posted well before there was any serious conversation about firing a missile at it. The question is where will the (whole)spy satellite hit earth? The options were three continents, water or blow up. It was blown up, now we're waiting to see what? If the pieces are tiny?

thruthwrangler is correct - VOID.

Per weather underground (http://www.wunderground.com/US/DC/#History), which was the page last used to settle a DC weather bet, the temperature hit 50 as of about 3:30 EST.

Well, electro, I'm glad we could be a part of your little muse. Now, could you stop posting questions solely for your own benefit and consider the greater good?

I agree with shadowax and dohler here. In order to justify anything greater than 50%, there would have to be some indication to support that. So far as I am aware, the first to imply this may be a possibility is thedoctor.

Assuming Al Gore would not endorse a Republican, the unpleasant quandary for Al Gore here is should he endorse his ex-bosses wife or a liberal idealist that agrees on virtually everything he (Al Gore) stands for today? If I were a betting man, (Oh, hey! I AM a betting man!), I'm guessing he'll politely decline an official endorsement.

homeboy, you do understand that this is easily manipulated, right? I could wait until it's about to close and put whatever $ amount on "No" it would take to make that a majority and win the pool. If I didn't have enough, there are plenty here that could easily afford 40-50k just to have an easy win. Likewise, the same could occur for those wishing for a "yes" win. Bottom line is that this is essentially just a tool to be manipulated for an attempt at a last second, money-maker.

dcatranis, Seriously???

I am not clear on the settlement rules on this one. When will it be determined that the flag was not accepted?

Flagged. The Dow is down so far for the year and is in danger of dipping below 12,000. The idea that the odds should be set at even 40 no that it would hit 14,000 is ridiculous.

How do we know how many have signed up? I assume we need to go to the forum and count on a regular basis? Any easier way?

Not cute, flagged it for clogging up the question list with an obvious attempt at just being cute.

How will this be settled? Is there a published transcript? I'm all over voting a big fat "of course" but I don't want my money tied up if it's going to be suspended for reasons of not being able to substantiate.

The YouTube site shows the current standings. While E*Trade is doing well, it is not currently ahead in votes. Go to the YouTube site and click on the "Gallery" tab for vote standings.

Thanks, I imagine I'll try to keep a few questions in here like this. I like that there's absolutely no way of keeping up with the progress and adjusting wagers on this, it's just an old school, all or nothing wager.

Unless I misunderstand the question, the 2/12 forecasted low for Bangs Tx is 35f and for Intercourse, it's 33f. The combined total is 68f or 35c. How then are the odds set at 55% yes? Flagged...

A 21 day restraining order was granted by a California court on February 5th. This order forbids Sam Lufti from coming 250 yards within Britney Spears.

He's on CNN now making a concession speech, how do you propose that wouldn't be considered dropping his bid. Technically, since I meet all the criteria for President of the US myself, I'm a candidate. I'm not actively campaigning though. He has announced his intention of running to obtain federal funding, "suspending" his campaign allows him to continue recieving federal dollars but he is clearly stating that it is not his intention to continue pursuing (therefore is "dropping" his bid for the US presidency)

This isn't a wager, it's trivia, the answer is already known.

destry, that's exactly what I was going to say.
If the earliest date choice is A, the second B, the third C and so on, and she's admitted by the date of A, the dates B,C,D, and E would also be correct. If she's admitted by the date of B, then C, D and E would also be be correct. Good idea bayoubear, but this question is a statistical impossibility.

TMZ.com is reporting that Britney was released about 30 minutes ago (4:30 Eastern)

Based on HubDub members, I'm guessing this would require every one of them to wager atleast 10% of their worth. Impossible.

I already have a wish list but relevent to this question, I'd like to see all members' ratings, not just the top 20. As the membership grows, that will likely become unsustainable but I like data and the top 20 just doesn't give me enough.

Crap, I lost my shirt, picked Hillary hours ago and never looked back until my 1000 bet had dwindled to $61.00. To say I'm a little grumpy is an under statement.

Just a tip HubDub, at the very least this question is in poor taste and will turn off some vistors to your site. At the very most it is offensive and will grant it's originator with a plethora of bad kharma.

A couple issues here:
- Has a suspend date but no settlement date. To win, Mwai Kibaki would have to step down by what date?
- Anyone following this would know that there's no way that the odds of Mwai Kibaki stepping down should be set at 90% Yes.

I guess this is the first self-referential question I've seen. I think it's pretty clever actually.

I agree about the terminology used in saying "Will Google 'Make An Offer'". Will they make an offer to buy Yahoo, probably not. Will they make an offer to create an alliance to fend off MS's buyout? I'd say they already did. This question really should be modified or withdrawn.

I'm going to create a question "Will swilson bet everything he has on 'The Alien' question" and set the odds at 90% yes. I'll make a fortune. BWAAAA HAAAAA HAAAAAAAAAA!

So, how does one cause these spikes that have become prevalent in this particular wager. I'm new to this but it's my guess that it's someone with enough money to move the betting a particular direction and then when it reaches what they think is the apex, they cash out with a profit. I don't particularly have a problem with this as it's all part of the game...I just wish I knew how it was done...

I only had $170 left to wage but I'll give the $170 and 1 random body part if Britney is granted any level of custody before February 4th.

Per AP News Article just reported on Yahoo News - (http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/aruba_missing_teen)
Joran van der Sloot said in a television interview Friday that he was lying when he told someone privately he was involved in Natalee Holloway's disappearance.
The statement came hours after Aruban prosecutors announced they were reopening their investigation into the disappearance of the Alabama teenager after seeing secretly taped material from a Dutch journalist.
Van der Sloot was interviewed telephone by the respected Dutch television show "Pauw & Witteman" following reports that crime reporter Peter R. De Vries had captured him in an apparent confession.

Personally, I'm betting on the assumption that "Featured" should mean that HubDub would be the primary focus of an article written by an Author paid by the NYT. Any less couldn't realistically be considered a feature article. HubDub - though I bet against you THIS WEEK, I hope they do, maybe next week.