yonemoto

you guys can't unilaterally do that, it's not right. People should see that the suspend date is jan 1, which means that there are AT LEAST 20 days before settlement. And understand that a difficult confirmation process is a risk. THAT IS PART OF THE QUESTION. You can't change the question after people have put their money in. THAT IS NOT FAIR.

Anyways, I'm leaving hubdub, because the rules keep changing from under me.

Uhm, can I have my money back, because the category editor changed the criteria... The title said, 'will she be'. By that I thought the market would settle when she was nominated AND confirmed.

on the other hand, Clinton is a she, so maybe it doesn't apply.

Article 3.

"The President shall be Commander in Chief ... he may require the Opinion, in writing, of the principal Officer in each of the executive Departments, upon any subject relating to the Duties of their respective Offices..."

In fact, two Republican presidents (Nixon, GHW Bush) have gotten around this by retroactively restricting the pay of these officers, but the Democrats have always challenged the constitutionality of this. We'll see if the shoe fits now that it's on the other aisle.

Of course, no one follows the constitution anymore.

Hm. People betting on this seem to realize that Clinton is Constitutionally disallowed from being the Secretary of State:

Article 1, Section Six:

"No Senator or Representative shall, during the Time for which he was elected, be appointed to any civil Office under the Authority of the United States which shall have been created, or the Emoluments whereof shall have been increased during such time"

The pay rate for the secretary of state was increased in 2007.

1) actually the text says "or independent candidate". Just be careful, some "independents" who were not running nationwide campaigns ended up on 3rd party slates (like alan keyes, CA, ron paul, Montana, LA).

Destry: you can't settle the market like that. Anyone who wants to withdraw their winnings is free to do so by hitting "cash out"; and in any case should have known that the end date was not necessarily the settle date. Finally, there is no way to set a "percentage" on that likelihood. Hubdub says 18%, after all.

what the hell? Why did this market settle?

what if Joe the plumber endorses a 3rd party candidate?

Suggest extending the suspend date on the grounds that something might change between november and January... This question says "who will be" not "who will be elected", so we won't know until the date of inaguruation.

2000:
Bush 47.9% Gore 48.4% (neither majority)

1996:
Clinton 49.24% Dole 40.71% (neither majority)

1992:
Clinton 43.0% Bush 37.7% (neither majority)

1968:
Nixon 43.4% Wallace 42.7%

By "popular vote" do you mean plurality or majority?

At this point even if someone is a registered republican (for example), and wins an electoral vote, that would qualify as INDEPENDENT, so yes.

For example, Ron Paul winning the state of Montana, or a republican voting Ron Paul as a faithless elector.

Note that if the 3rd parties don't directly get electoral college votes in the election, the market will continue on to see if the 3rd party/independent candidates get faithless electors.

Wait, what happens if neither gets a majority in the house (or senate) and is forced into a coalition? For example let's say a republican + republican-leaning 3rd party coalition get a majority, republicans install a speaker, and capture most (if not all) of the committe chairmanships. Does that count as REPHOUSE?

Misspellings and ordering mistakes, party mistakes will also count, unless 1) the count is redone and the corrected ballot is sent to congress, or 2) if the elector comes forward before inauguration day and admits an unintentional error/mistake even if it the vote is entered into the record. So it has to be a true faithless elector, not an 'accidental' faithless elector (up to inauguration day).

yes.

No, you must have an absolute majority -- in the event where there is no majority but still a 'winner', congress still choses.

Is it just me or did the settlement details change? I recall the settlement details stating that if no election occurs, the "other" choice wins.

@Nigel (202)

Just simply put a "more options" button, allowing it to be (relatively easy, without URL hacking) to place votes for other people on the original list.

Part of the way hubdub works is to allow for people to place and withdraw bids, so one may be able to 'ride' a wave of popularity in a low-valued bid.

HUH? 1) M&C hardly qualifies as "mainstream news source". Also, can we at least have total numbers on the DNC as well as the RNC?

delegates can turn down a president, for certain.

not including puerto rico, presumably.

presumably you mean "the eye crosses over soil", and TSes which used to be hurricanes don't count.

no, it really was my fault, I should have read more carefully; but really the emendation should have occurred in the "settlement details".

Gosh, sorry.

can we get clarification if this means that the hurricane must be category 4 or 5 at the time of landfall, and will not count if the hurricane was previously 4 or 5 but downgraded before landfall.

this is not a matter of "who should be included" but "who was on the list when the market was set".

Furthermore, the "other" option should still be around, since the question explicitly says "who will be the next president", (not who will win the election in november) which could conceivably be Dick Cheney, should GWB be (sucessfully) impeached, resign, assasination, et cetera.

Too much work. I had placed bids on a low-valued candidate on the speculation that their values would dramatically rise. Now I won't be able to cash out on those bids using my strategy, because no one will put positions on this candidate.

replace "months" in the above statement with "weeks"

I've been tracking the two for about a month now, and Ron Paul's sales rate are double Obama's; (Remember Obama cola has been on the shelves for about three months longer than Ron Paul Cola).

You should reinstate the other options because someone may decide to put a position on those, which would dramatically increase the value of somone with a position; this is a very valid techinque for playing the game.

thanks for taking care of it!

Good job whoever uploaded the Image -- that's the MCCAIN cola, which is not really referenced in this market.

"Unexpected consequences result in the end of life" Presuambly, this is to say "impending end to all life on earth"? Could be a bit ambigous, with options 3, 4, 5. Although if you win this bet, then what are you doing checking Hubdub afterwards?

How big is "large scale"? More than one state? more than one municipality? One large municipality, like NYC? Some threshold of people?

Uhm, do you mean running mate or Vice Presidential candidate? I.E. is the result of this question contigent on an election victory by McCain?

This should not have been voided until the end of the month, because there was a very, very good chance that the ambiguity over item three would have been resolved.

Extraterrestrial life -- X-ray scattering spectrum of molecular oxygen off of an extrasolar planet.

market does not specify standard delegates or superdelegates.

presuming the misspelling of "kaguya" will not affect the outcome. Suggest a change in title.

Does this include puerto rico and the USVI?

Please define "Shoot Down". Do we mean score a strike? Or do we mean strike hard enough that the satellite disintegrates into pieces that quantitatively burn up in the atmosphere. Almost certainly, the missile strike will be in an "upwards" direction.

To be fair if the ASAT rends the satellite into small enough pieces, then it will hit "none" as everything gets vaporized.

condoms can prevent transmission of HIV from person to person.

"prevent" too unclear. AZT can prevent transmission of HIV from mother to child.

tisha, even if the ASAT does hit, you should wait to settle the question because there still may be a large piece leftover that manages to hit the earth.

Also, just to let you guys know -- the US has successfully deployed an ASAT before -- launched from an F15 in supersonic climb.

I put a wager on "water" and "americas" thinking that "blow up" meant "disintegrate or being blow up", and wagered on a missile miss!

similarly, power lines, undersea internet connections (unlikely with the depth), sea mines, et cetera.

If it lands just offshore and destroys an oil rig or an undersea research station, that should count as "built up".

I think it should be "anything not water or undisturbed soil". So, roads yes, front yards yes, forests no (unless it hits a forest road), glaciers, no, buildings, resoundingly yes. Backcountry of a park, no, unless it destroys a structure), etc.

It will be pretty obvious if something bad is going on, since these are news items. The irregularities occur when staff who void questions do so on somewhat questionable bases (such as, "bad initial percentages"). There should be some mathematical way to do this -- maybe have the person writing the question stake the initial investment, also there's no way to track "volume"; that is, you could have zero money behind an initial projection, place a $5000 bet on something at "2%" and win a ton of money that didn't exist before. In theory, you should only be able to win the money that's behind whatever positions exist. Another way to resolve this would be to have a period where oddless "initial stakes" are placed on the question.

If a candidate changes parties, will they then move to the "independent" category, or will their position still be valid?

what, exactly, does "contribute" mean?

Also depends on the dollar's purchasing power.